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Saturday, October 24, 2026

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Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run rate and customer wafer prepayments through 2027.

TSEM $19B
CV's Substack 9 clicks

From X

@aleabitoreddit 2 clicks

Serenity on X

Yeah this statement was heavily bullish on neoclouds like $NBIS along with many others "Our belief is that the value of compute per watt will increase over time, not decrease. The reason for that, I think it should be obvious to people really, is that as you improve the AI software, as the models get better and better, you get more useful intelligence per watt And the value of that compute is proportionate to the useful intelligence per watt. And that’s why you see things like even old computers like H100s renting for more than they rented when they were new. And I think that’s likely to continue. I think we’re going to face a shortage of superintelligence compute and that shortage is going to remain for a long time"
@aleabitoreddit 10 clicks

Serenity on X

Yeah not sure how anyone thinks it's over on AI semis like $NVDA GPUs, memory, to photonics, after $SPCX earnings. - Previous Q4 capex outlook ~$18.4B... Now $35–40 billion Q4 capex guidance, basically doubling previous outlook "Q3 and Q4 capex should be similar to Q2's $18.37B" from CFO in August. -Elon: "If everything goes right, we’ll have 20 gigawatts of incremental power next year" "High confidence of 10 GW next year, and 20 is difficult but not impossible - "I’m being as precise as possible about this. It is absolutely insane to be deploying and providing the power and all of the electrical equipment, the cooling, the batteries, the networking, and everything else that’s needed to turn on 220,000 GB300s a month" You're gonna need a lot of HBM, power, networking/optical components to make all of this happen. - Elon projects SpaceX could exit 2027 with an ARR of "$500 billion and $1 trillion by the end of 2027 When you see $SPCX double capex outlook next quarter, target another 10GW deployment by next year, and all the procurement needed to turn on 220,000 GB300's a month... Hard not to be bullish on AI semis.

Investor Letters

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Deep Dive: $ASML

ASML’s €230 million EUV machines underpin advanced AI chip production, with demand booked through 2028 after nearly $9 billion and two…

ASML $616B
Rebound Capital 8 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $96B
Doomberg 9 clicks

Our Views on CoreWeave

CoreWeave's financial statements point to a business model familiar to the authors after a closer review of the AI infrastructure company.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 12 clicks
TCEHY · long

Tencent Holdings LTD

Tencent, valued near $500 billion, is a long idea built on its Chinese gaming, social-network and advertising franchises.

TCEHY $449B
Value Investors Club

Capital Wars

CoreWeave’s $35 billion to $39 billion 2026 spending plan relies on debt as unsecured yields reach 15%, making its GPU cloud expansion a…

CRWV $34B
Net Interest 11 clicks

Putting bear cases to rest

Medpace authorized $1 billion of buybacks through 2028 after Q3 revenue rose 8.5% to $716 million; service revenue grew roughly 12% as…

MEDP $18B
Best Anchor Stocks 14 clicks

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