Friday, October 23, 2026

AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap

CoreWeave’s rising debt yields and fading confidence in AI data-center economics frame a weekly review of Meta, Tesla, SpaceX, Netflix, French bonds and housing.

CRWV $30BTSLA $1.5T

Steve Eisman Oct 23 28 clicks

Oct 23 CRWV $30B

Our Views on CoreWeave

WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 12 clicks

Oct 23 BE $56B

Bloom Energy (NYSE: BE) Q3 FY12/26 Earnings - Revenue Up 138% On The Datacenter Power Race

Cestrian Capital Research 8 clicks

From X

@MultiplesCap Sep 12

Multiples Capital on X

Not an AI expert by any stretch, but wonder if US labs actually coordinate to "pace the frontier," it could be a stealth negative for Nvidia’s top-line growth rate. Here’s why: Flattening the Frontier Race: If scaling massive base models is intentionally delayed for alignment, the panic to hoard the newest, most expensive contiguous GPU clusters cools down. Shift to Post-Training & RL: Progress shifts to squeezing intelligence out of existing models via synthetic data and self-play. This relies on inference-class rollout fleets rather than cutting-edge pre-training mega-clusters. The Verification Layer: Evaluating, sandboxing, and grading all that synthetic RL data requires massive CPU compute .... benefitting $INTC Less brute-force pre-training = extended hardware refresh cycles and a normalized upgrade curve for $NVDA. Markets much smarter on this than I, will wait into see how the stock prices react to this next week!

@Fierce__beast Sep 12

Fierce_beast on X

For $CASY, let's say it grows earnings roughly 6% on average for the next 20 years, then 3% terminally. Maybe its 9% for the next 5 years, but gradually moves toward something like maturity of 3%, average let's say is 6%. What multiple would you currently pay on that earnings stream? Personally, i would pay no more than 25x for this. Add other considerations to the business, maybe you think it will grow faster or longer, adjust your multiple as you prefer.

@BarbarianCap Sep 12

Barbarian Capital on X

How PayPal’s CEO Is Planning to Go It Alone and Fix the Payments Giant $PYPL https://t.co/o18iIv2hgc

@negligible_cap Sep 12

Negligible Capital on X

“No one should be allowed to try and build better AI models than us” - Dario probably How come you never hear $META or $GOOG researchers crying wolf about the imminent dangers of AI? Or any open-sourced AI company? It’s seemingly always just Anthropic and OpenAI https://t.co/9UdFguBdPY

@negligible_cap Sep 12

Negligible Capital on X

“No one should be allowed to try and build better AI models than us” - Dario probably How come you never hear $META or $GOOG researchers crying wolf about the imminent dangers of AI? Or any open-sourced AI company? It’s always just Anthropic and OpenAI, which don’t have nearly the cashflow to support their operations like Meta or Alphabet or Alibaba. Let AI defend against AI, not regulation

@partners_road Sep 12

RiverRoadPartners on X

Stan gave the example of 2001. $CSCO had aggressively grown its backlog every yr through the Internet 1.0 buildout & the Street expected the same in 2001, but instead $CSCO’s backlog plunged. The build was over, & with that equipment demand evaporated. That will happen again. https://t.co/7yB6vDgcl8

@TidefallCapital Sep 12

Trevor Scott on X

my mistake $ADBE has a Nov year end. so it's 12x nov 2027, 14x nov 2026.

@TidefallCapital Sep 11

Trevor Scott on X

I'll never understand going long $ADBE at 14x '27 when you can buy $CSU.TO at 15x '27. Maybe because it's Canadian listed.

Philip Morris: Taking the Fight to the U.S.

Philip Morris reported Q3 growth across heated tobacco, combustibles and e-vapor in Europe while gaining U.S. nicotine-pouch share.

PM $314B

Librarian Capital's Research Library Oct 23 3 clicks

Amazon’s Trainium Takes a Strike at the Training King

Amazon’s Trainium3 adds native PyTorch training support, targeting CUDA-trained researchers with standard APIs, eager mode and…

AMZN $2.7T

SemiAnalysis Oct 23 7 clicks

Alphabet: Gemini 4 Argon Is Coming For ChatGPT's Lunch

Alphabet's Gemini 4 Argon aims to undercut rival AI models using proprietary TPUs, while Android, Siri and Google Cloud distribution…

GOOGL $3.9T

Dustin Quasney Oct 23 3 clicks

Capital Wars

CoreWeave’s $35 billion to $39 billion 2026 spending plan relies on debt as unsecured yields reach 15%, making its GPU cloud expansion a…

CRWV $30B

Net Interest Oct 23 11 clicks

Spotify 3Q’26: Built for the Background

Spotify's third-quarter results met or exceeded guidance, with 306 million Premium subscribers and €672 million operating income, while…

SPOT $108B

MBI Deep Dives Oct 23 3 clicks

Big Tech Will Spend More on AI This Year Than Walmart Sells

Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft plan nearly $800 billion of AI infrastructure spending, testing whether incremental returns can stay…

GOOGL $3.9TMSFT $3.9T

Ezra's Notes Oct 23 5 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/23/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Ally’s improving credit and capital returns, Pepsi’s weak beverage brands, and Match Group’s plan to revive…

ALLY $12BMTCH $11B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 23 4 clicks

Texas Instruments (NASDAQ: TXN) Stock Rating: HOLD After Q3 FY12/26 Earnings

Texas Instruments reported Q3 revenue of $6.06 billion, up 28%, with 47% operating margin and Q4 guidance above seasonal norms; Cestrian…

TXN $260B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 23 6 clicks

Tempus AI: Moderna's New Cancer Vaccine Partner Is The Pick Of The AI Biotech Bunch

TEM $11BMRNA $98B

Edmund Ingham Oct 23 4 clicks

Putting bear cases to rest

Medpace authorized $1 billion of buybacks through 2028 after Q3 revenue rose 8.5% to $716 million; service revenue grew roughly 12% as…

MEDP $18B

Best Anchor Stocks Oct 23 14 clicks

Lockheed Martin Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Lockheed Martin's Q3 missile sales rose 24% on PAC-3, THAAD, GMLRS and PrSM ramps, lifting Missiles and Fire Control backlog to $142.5…

LMT $140B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 23 5 clicks

Industry Primers Podcast: Natural Resources Royalty & Streaming, Part One: The Story

Franco-Nevada, Wheaton and Texas Pacific Land built royalty and streaming businesses by buying fixed shares of mines and wells, tracing the…

FNV $47BWPM $57B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 23 4 clicks

Oscar Health: Up Over 200% From The March Lows, Still Room To Run (Ticker: OSCR)

Oscar Health raised 2026 operating earnings guidance to $600 million-$800 million after ACA-marketplace expansion drove 60% membership and…

OSCR $10B

Emerging Moats Research Oct 23 4 clicks

It’s time to sell the winners again as Western Digital, Bloom report outstanding results, shares drop

Western Digital and Bloom Energy fell after strong quarterly results, extending the selloff in AI-linked stocks.

WDC $132BBE $56B

The Technology Letter Oct 22 5 clicks

Sharp Tech on Video: Netflix Angst, the End of the Internet, and Meta’s VR Glasses

Sharp Tech launches on video, covering Netflix, the internet’s future and Meta’s VR glasses.

NFLX $511BMETA $1.8T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. Oct 22 1 click

OCP 2026: MicroVCSELs are gaining attention, but microLEDs still have a case

Credo’s microVCSEL pivot targets 10–20m data-center links where copper falls short, while microLEDs compete nearer compute on integration,…

CRDO $28B

Vik's Newsletter Oct 22 5 clicks

Field Trip: AI Has to Be Seen to Be Believed

Seattle AI users report major productivity gains and expect firms to shift from OpenAI and Anthropic toward owned hardware, supporting…

NVDA $5.1T

Aurelion Research Oct 22 15 clicks

Lam Research Q1 FY6/27 Earnings Review

Lam Research reported $8.22 billion in Q1 FY6/27 revenue, with systems up 62% and operating margin reaching a record 40% as memory spending…

LRCX $326B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 22 4 clicks

Meta 3Q’26: Healthy Core, But Investors Spooked by Potential Funding Ambitions

Meta’s ad revenue grew 26% to $63.1 billion, but negative free cash flow and $135-145 billion of capex raise concerns over AI funding and a…

META $1.8T

MBI Deep Dives Oct 22 3 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #12: Oct 22, 2026

PJM's 6,831 MW capacity shortfall is driving nuclear uprates, with Google contracting 890 MW from 11 operating reactors.

CEG $96B

Trade Ideas Flow Oct 22 2 clicks

Friday, October 23, 2026

Multiples Capital on X

Fierce_beast on X

Barbarian Capital on X

Negligible Capital on X

Negligible Capital on X

RiverRoadPartners on X

Trevor Scott on X

Trevor Scott on X

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