Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Wednesday, October 21, 2026

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@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

Between July 10 and August 20, Boost Run’s $BRUN float more than tripled, a problem the larger GPU clouds didn’t have. When I wrote my June 3 update, its float was only ~17.5M shares (12.65M public shares plus 10% of insider and sponsor shares that were never locked up). In my May 17 post, I expected most insider and sponsor shares to stay locked up until mid-November, based on an S-4 (merger filing) sentence that read as if only 10% could be released early. But the July 2 S-1 (its resale registration filing) shows the lockup ended for all of those shares once the stock closed at or above $12.00 on 20 of 30 trading days after the closing, which by my count happened on June 8, 2026. The resale registration for 58.7M shares then went effective on July 10, and after $BRUN called its warrants on July 21, exercises added 11.45M new shares by August 20. That took $BRUN’s float from ~17.5M shares to all 54.3M Class A shares, ~3.1x as many, between July 10 and August 20, while the stock fell from $28.44 to $19.40. So I’d blame the drop from $39.20 on two causes that have nothing to do with $BRUN’s core operations: (1) higher rates and borrowing costs, and (2) $BRUN’s float growing ~3.1x, which was expected once its lockup ended and its warrants were called.
@convequity

Convequity on X

We see $NVDA seeking more power over its HBM suppliers by making Samsung, SK hynix and Micron ($MU) conform to the same base die design for NVHBM, its custom memory. Seoul Economic Daily reports Nvidia asked all three to make the NVHBM base die at TSMC ($TSM), citing consistent performance across suppliers and less validation work per supplier. Samsung reportedly agreed. The base die is the logic beneath the DRAM stack that connects it to the processor, and it is where each memory maker could differentiate with its own logic design. On NVHBM the base die follows Nvidia's standard and carries Nvidia's own memory controller. Our view: this makes the three suppliers' NVHBM stacks much closer to interchangeable. Nvidia can validate each supplier's memory more easily, shift orders between them and push harder on price. The trade-off is more reliance on TSMC. The memory makers are left competing on DRAM core dies, stacking, yield and capacity, which weakens their pricing power with Nvidia on NVHBM. What would change our view: SK hynix or Micron keeping their own logic in the NVHBM base die, or NVHBM staying a small share of Nvidia's memory purchases.
@convequity 2 clicks

Convequity on X

When Tesla ($TSLA) reports on Wednesday 21 Oct, what we want to hear on Optimus is evidence that it works reliably in real jobs. We hold Tesla as a long-term physical-AI position through Optimus and Cybercab, and we keep it small. In our view, an affordable, capable Optimus could become an enormous product. Demonstrations alone do not show it is ready for sustained use in real working environments. On the call, we will be listening for: 1. Reliability in real work 2. Progress on affordability 3. Commercialization timing, which could take longer than investors expect Evidence on those three points would change our sizing. If they are proven, we could consider a weight above 2% over time.

Investor Letters

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Eli Lilly And Co. (LLY)

Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound drove 2025 revenue to $65.2 billion as the drugmaker expands AI partnerships with Nvidia, Isomorphic…

LLY $1.2T
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 20 clicks

Why I sold OB pick for 26 SVM

Silvercorp’s falling Ying grades, prolonged GC suspension, El Domo execution risk and Chaarat funding needs weaken its valuation despite…

SVM $2B
The Oak Bloke 22 clicks

Vicor Update, Part Three

Vicor’s $66.6 million in AI power-delivery royalties generated about $50 million of operating profit, eclipsing its module business as…

VICR $9.7B
CV's Substack 28 clicks

Carecloud News

CareCloud may attract a private-equity buyer after its Q3 call, with acquiring enough shares the main obstacle to a take-private deal.

CCLD $79M
Calvin Blissett 10 clicks

Heico Corporation

HEICO sells FAA-approved aircraft replacement parts at 30% to 50% discounts to OEMs, gaining customers as restrictive aftermarket contracts…

HEI $42B
D Invests 13 clicks

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