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Tuesday, October 20, 2026

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Vicor Update, Part Three

Vicor’s $66.6 million in AI power-delivery royalties generated about $50 million of operating profit, eclipsing its module business as revenue reached $197.1 million.

VICR $10B
CV's Substack 26 clicks

From X

@ParadisLabs 3 clicks

Paradis on X

Once again, the GPU depreciation bear thesis is dead. Elon on the $SPCX call: "The value of compute per watt will increase over time, not decrease... that's why you see things like even old computers like H100s renting for more than they rented when they were new." When supply is this constrained, GPU rental prices are set by the value of the marginal token, not the replacement cost of the chip. Models keep getting better, and better models raise the value of every installed watt faster than new GPUs deflate the old ones. Various datapoints all stack up: -> $SPCX says compute contracts are renewing "at higher dollars per watt, not lower dollars per watt" -> 1-year H100 contract pricing went from ~$1.70/hr to ~$2.35/hr between Oct 2025 and Mar 2026 (a 2022 chip!) -> $CRWV signed an A100 contract running into 2029 (a 2020 chip) and said older-gen pricing is at / above a year ago, and raised list prices ~25% in July. -> $NBIS's first Blackwell auction cleared 15% above its previous high and as a reminder....they told customers H100 on-demand goes up ~17% (from Oct 1). -> Zuckerberg: $META is getting offers for its compute "at a significant premium over what we paid for it". -> Lenders are now lending against GPUs out to 2030 e.g. $NBIS borrowed against its GPUs at SOFR+250 in July. Feels like the 2-3 year GPU useful life bear thesis keeps getting setback. Ofc, the one thing that ruins the party is the S/D gap closing -- Rental prices fall back toward replacement cost + older GPUs get repriced on perf/W. Which won't happen anytime soon.
@aleabitoreddit 2 clicks

Serenity on X

Yeah this statement was heavily bullish on neoclouds like $NBIS along with many others "Our belief is that the value of compute per watt will increase over time, not decrease. The reason for that, I think it should be obvious to people really, is that as you improve the AI software, as the models get better and better, you get more useful intelligence per watt And the value of that compute is proportionate to the useful intelligence per watt. And that’s why you see things like even old computers like H100s renting for more than they rented when they were new. And I think that’s likely to continue. I think we’re going to face a shortage of superintelligence compute and that shortage is going to remain for a long time"

Investor Letters

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Copper Fox Metals: Research Flash

Copper Fox’s C$9.1 million Schaft Creek program advances metallurgical, tailings, water and road studies toward a pre-feasibility study,…

TECK $31B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 6 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens ad…

APP $92BU $19B
Speedwell Memos 66 clicks
PYPL · long

Paypal Holdings INC

PayPal’s valuation implies free cash flow will shrink 9.3% annually over the next decade, framing a long thesis against its recent revenue…

PYPL $48B
Value Investors Club

Coupang: 2Q26 Business Recap

Coupang’s product-commerce revenue rose 8% in constant currency as data-leak churn lingered, while promotions and underused logistics…

CPNG $27B
Speedwell Memos 8 clicks

Portfolio Update July 2026

Portfolio update trimmed Greggs and Roper Technologies after earnings, with Roper raising guidance and Greggs reporting 7.2% revenue growth…

ROP $38BZTS $33B
D Invests 1 click

Deep Dive: Equifax ($EFX)

Equifax’s Workforce Solutions generated $2.58B in 2025 at more than 50% EBITDA margins, anchored by Work Number.

EFX $19B
Rebound Capital 1 click

Genius Sports (GENI)

Genius Sports’ $1.2 billion Legend acquisition adds direct bettor monetization, while its exclusive NFL data rights could supply prediction…

SRAD $13B
Sylence Capital 1 click

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