Monday, October 19, 2026

WD #360: New Trade, Recent Market Action, Brazil/Inter Update

Atlassian is sold after a 130% gain, while iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF is added following the market plunge; the update also assesses the AI-stock selloff and CoreWeave’s collapse.

TEAM $56B

Ian’s Insider Corner Oct 19 14 clicks

Oct 19 NOC $73B

Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Preview - Accumulate Rating, Zones And Stop Inside

Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

Oct 19 APP $92B

AppLovin Deep Dive

Speedwell Memos 66 clicks

From X

@DeepSailCapital Oct 19 5 clicks

Deep Sail Capital on X

$ARKK vs $SPY vs $QQQ by year. https://t.co/XEaaaCTQvL

@Mr_Neutral_Man Oct 19 2 clicks

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

@Menckenist @rippercatcher Very interesting. What's the typical mix of a $WD loan? Is it moslty fixed rate with 5-7 year maturity? How much of it is the type that finance the S2 and Tide capital where deals were done at 3% cap with floating rate debt greatly appreciate this!

@BarbarianCap Oct 19

Barbarian Capital on X

Silgan to Combine With Trivium Packaging in $3.4 Billion Deal $SLGN https://t.co/XWQSkZuUO5

@BarbarianCap Oct 19

Barbarian Capital on X

Germany’s Merck to Buy U.K. Biotech Silence Therapeutics for $1.3 Billion $SLN https://t.co/FXr0mtRMow

@BarbarianCap Oct 19 2 clicks

Barbarian Capital on X

H.B. Fuller Rejects Ancora’s Latest Acquisition Bid, Plans to Consider Selling Noncore Businesses $FUL https://t.co/L8b85qb666

@BarbarianCap Oct 19 6 clicks

Barbarian Capital on X

Unilever Agrees to Sell Welly Bandage Business to Private-Equity Firm $UL https://t.co/yFW742mFrr

@StableBread Oct 19 1 click

Fajasy on X

From June 1 to October 16, Boost Run $BRUN fell 77.3%, vs. 37.4-58.7% for CoreWeave $CRWV, Nebius $NBIS, and $IREN. That drop in AI infra stocks is tied to to rising bets on another Fed rate hike. Higher rates hurt GPU clouds in two ways, since they (1) raise the cost of the debt that pays for their GPUs and (2) lower what investors will pay today for profits that arrive years later. But all three peers kept or raised their 2026 targets: → $CRWV: Raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $12.4-13.2B on its Q2 call. → $IREN: Raised its year-end ARR target to more than $4B on July 20. → $NBIS: Reaffirmed its 2026 guidance with its Q2 results. The problem is that lenders are charging more now. CoreWeave’s 9.625% notes due 2032 yielded 14.74% on October 16, up from 13.19% on October 1, meaning CoreWeave would likely pay ~15%/year to borrow the same way today. So the selloff came from how investors now see the cost of funding the demand for GPU clouds, not from the demand itself.

@BarbarianCap Oct 19

Barbarian Capital on X

Tradeweb to Buy Trumid For About $1.97 Billion $TW https://t.co/41iZw4PowI

Meta’s GEM, Part 2: Finding the Scaling Law

Meta’s GEM trains smaller ad-ranking models across its platforms, with Kunlun showing performance scaling predictably as compute rises.

META $1.8T

MBI Deep Dives Oct 19 10 clicks

LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $525M

Trade Ideas Flow Oct 19 21 clicks

Sell Eagle Point Credit Now - Match The Loss With Portfolio Gains To Lower Income Taxes

Eagle Point Credit's NAV is down 25% YTD and shares nearly 50%, while its expense ratio climbed to 9.21% despite a 25% yield.

ECC $367M

Anthony Cataldo Oct 19 5 clicks

The Agentic AI Roadmap for SaaS

SaaS companies including Salesforce, ServiceNow, CrowdStrike, Synopsys and Veeva are ranked by agentic AI progress, from pilots to…

CRM $199BCRWD $233B

Jimmy's Journal Oct 19 27 clicks

Build-A-Bear: A Narrower Path

Build-A-Bear's push into prestuffed toys and broader retail distribution tests brand stretchability, but recent results warrant caution.

BBW $303M

TSOH Investment Research Oct 19 18 clicks

The Monday Morning Briefing: Meta, Tesla, Netflix, P&G on Deck

Lennar’s land-bank costs pressure homebuilding margins, while Flowers Foods weighs a Tastykake sale after falling branded-bread share,…

LEN $18BFLO $1.3B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 19 34 clicks

LendingTree (NASDAQ: $TREE) – A Cyclical Comeback Story Priced as if the Cycle Never Turns

LendingTree derives roughly two-thirds of revenue from insurance and trades near 4 times expected adjusted earnings despite record revenue,…

TREE $373M

Substack von Philipp Oct 19 10 clicks

Exelon: Shelter From The Storm And Nice Yield As Utilities Catch A Bid

EXC $45B

Michael Fitzsimmons Oct 19 4 clicks

Our Q3 2026 Update: Our Companies (OXY, RIG, VAL)

Occidental Petroleum’s debt should fall further after Q3 oil prices averaged $85 per barrel WTI and $91 Brent.

OXY $63BRIG $6.5B

Open Insights Oct 19 15 clicks

Undercovered Dozen: Hess Midstream, Iovance Biotherapeutics, Netlist, And More

Hess Midstream, Iovance Biotherapeutics, Netlist and nine other lesser-covered stocks make this week’s Undercovered Dozen.

HESM $6.3BIOVA $6.7B

The Undercovered Dozen Oct 18 16 clicks

SYK · long

Stryker CORP

Stryker (SYK) trades near a 52-week low after a late-Q1 cyberattack disrupted revenue and earnings, framing a long-term compounder…

SYK $114B

Value Investors Club May 4 4 clicks

XPEL's Manufacturing Build-Out

XPEL plans to spend $75 million to $150 million on manufacturing, targeting 52-54% gross margins and high-20s EBIT margins by 2028.

XPEL $1.2B

Hidden Gems Investing Feb 10

Ferrari Exploratory Report

Ferrari sells about 13,000 vehicles annually, generating €7 billion of revenue and 28% operating margins; its shares trade at 32 times…

RACE $71B

Speedwell Memos Feb 10 1 click

Carvana, DriveTime, Hindenburg and Gotham City

Carvana’s DriveTime disclosures do not prove loan-loss shifting, but related-party dealings and gains on loan sales remain central concerns.

CVNA $65B

Brevarthan Research Feb 9

FDA vs. HIMS: Why the Oral “Wegovy Copy” Crackdown Changes the GLP-1 Game

FDA’s crackdown on HIMS’s $49 compounded oral Wegovy copy reshapes GLP-1 competition after Novo Nordisk forecast 2026 sales and profit…

NVO $172BHIMS $6.6B

Modern Value Investing Feb 8

Evolution: 4Q25 Business Update

Evolution's fourth-quarter revenue fell 4% as Asia cyber disruption and European channelization outweighed U.S.

EVVTY $15B

Speedwell Memos Feb 6 1 click

Adobe Inc (ADBE): slowly, then all at once

Adobe’s sub-20x forward GAAP P/E reflects AI disruption fears, with the investment case hinging on whether Digital Media’s creative…

ADBE $100B

Bristlemoon Capital Feb 6

2026: Radio silence, software setbacks and more from me in 2026

RELX and Sage have fallen 46% and 35% as markets label them AI losers, creating potential value opportunities alongside risks of genuine…

GOOGL $4.2T

The Curious Compounder Feb 5

My Biggest Position: A Monopoly Priced for Failure

A former value-investor darling, down 50%, pairs a monopoly with a recurring-revenue razor-and-blade business; debt paydown, margin…

PBI $2.3B

Treasure Hunting Feb 5 3 clicks

InMode (INMD): Low-risk Take-Private Opportunity Exited

InMode faces $1 billion to $1.1 billion take-private bids, including Centroid and a management-led group, while Steel Partners offers $18…

INMD $807MSOFWF $431M

Underlying Value Feb 2

Monday, October 19, 2026

Deep Sail Capital on X

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

Barbarian Capital on X

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Fajasy on X

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