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Monday, October 19, 2026

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From June 1 to October 16, Boost Run $BRUN fell 77.3%, vs. 37.4-58.7% for CoreWeave $CRWV, Nebius $NBIS, and $IREN. That drop in AI infra stocks is tied to to rising bets on another Fed rate hike. Higher rates hurt GPU clouds in two ways, since they (1) raise the cost of the debt that pays for their GPUs and (2) lower what investors will pay today for profits that arrive years later. But all three peers kept or raised their 2026 targets: → $CRWV: Raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $12.4-13.2B on its Q2 call. → $IREN: Raised its year-end ARR target to more than $4B on July 20. → $NBIS: Reaffirmed its 2026 guidance with its Q2 results. The problem is that lenders are charging more now. CoreWeave’s 9.625% notes due 2032 yielded 14.74% on October 16, up from 13.19% on October 1, meaning CoreWeave would likely pay ~15%/year to borrow the same way today. So the selloff came from how investors now see the cost of funding the demand for GPU clouds, not from the demand itself.

Investor Letters

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LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $525M
Trade Ideas Flow 21 clicks

Build-A-Bear: A Narrower Path

Build-A-Bear's push into prestuffed toys and broader retail distribution tests brand stretchability, but recent results warrant caution.

BBW $303M
TSOH Investment Research 17 clicks

Precision AI

Adobe’s licensed vector data, corporate workflow integration and compliance framework could give it an edge in precision AI as frontier…

ADBE $100B
Bearstone

Intuit deep dive

Intuit’s investment case turns on whether AI strengthens or weakens QuickBooks and TurboTax moats across SMB accounting, payroll, payments…

INTU $88B
Global Outperformers

AnaptysBio (ANAB)

AnaptysBio’s Jemperli royalty receipts rise after a Sagard financing obligation ends in 2027.

ANAB $1.4B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

What I've Been Reading

Yesway, Dollar General and Expedia feature in a research roundup spanning convenience retail, discount stores and AI-driven travel search.

YSWY $1.5BDG $29B
Stock Thoughts

Dance with the Devil (Nasdaq: ILPT)

ILPT’s Hawaii ground leases and US warehouse portfolio are improving, while five-year fixed-rate refinancing eases the debt burden created…

ILPT $416M
Real Assets, Real Value

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