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Monday, October 19, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

From June 1 to October 16, Boost Run $BRUN fell 77.3%, vs. 37.4-58.7% for CoreWeave $CRWV, Nebius $NBIS, and $IREN. That drop in AI infra stocks is tied to to rising bets on another Fed rate hike. Higher rates hurt GPU clouds in two ways, since they (1) raise the cost of the debt that pays for their GPUs and (2) lower what investors will pay today for profits that arrive years later. But all three peers kept or raised their 2026 targets: → $CRWV: Raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $12.4-13.2B on its Q2 call. → $IREN: Raised its year-end ARR target to more than $4B on July 20. → $NBIS: Reaffirmed its 2026 guidance with its Q2 results. The problem is that lenders are charging more now. CoreWeave’s 9.625% notes due 2032 yielded 14.74% on October 16, up from 13.19% on October 1, meaning CoreWeave would likely pay ~15%/year to borrow the same way today. So the selloff came from how investors now see the cost of funding the demand for GPU clouds, not from the demand itself.
@gnoble79

George Noble on X

$CRWV IS THE MOST OBVIOUS SHORT The stock is down 41% since we shorted it at $107 in June, and it’s still one of our biggest shorts. While it cratered, Robinhood customers bought a record amount of it over 5 days, and that's not what you want to see if you're a bull. I think only a takeunder from Nvidia, meaning a buyout below today's price, keeps it out of bankruptcy. Investors are refusing to pay up for AI data centers: https://t.co/BNlSCTeNcI
@gnoble79 24 clicks

George Noble on X

This is not what you want to see if you are a $CRWV bull. $CRWV remains one of our biggest shorts. We are short from $107. Only a takeunder from $NVDA will prevent bankruptcy. Subscribe to the Noble Update to receive our best ideas. 67% YTD performance based on a diversified book of longs AND shorts. We have unrivaled performance. We have decades of experience. We are battled tested and have been through numerous market cycles. We have a process. While others chase narratives and charts, we focus on valuation and fundamentals. KNOW WHAT YOU OWN. YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER IS GREATLY APPRECIATED.

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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper…

SMTC $13B
CV's Substack 13 clicks
ADBE · long

Adobe INC

Adobe's dual network effects and platform entrenchment make AI fears a buying opportunity for the software compounder.

ADBE $98B
Value Investors Club 1 click

The AI Compute Squeeze

CoreWeave and Nebius cite AI compute shortages and higher-priced GPU renewals, but older-chip utilization and depreciation vary across…

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MBI Deep Dives 9 clicks

Adobe Inc.

Adobe’s 11x P/E reflects AI disruption fears, but its creative standards, product bundling and Firefly monetisation support the case for…

ADBE $98B
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