Monday, October 19, 2026

WD #360: New Trade, Recent Market Action, Brazil/Inter Update

Atlassian is sold after a 130% gain, while iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF is added following the market plunge; the update also assesses the AI-stock selloff and CoreWeave’s collapse.

TEAM $52B

Ian’s Insider Corner 26h ago 12 clicks

30h ago NOC $68B

Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Preview - Accumulate Rating, Zones And Stop Inside

Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

32h ago APP $88B

AppLovin Deep Dive

Speedwell Memos 48 clicks

From X

@Mr_Neutral_Man 25h ago 2 clicks

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

@Menckenist @rippercatcher Very interesting. What's the typical mix of a $WD loan? Is it moslty fixed rate with 5-7 year maturity? How much of it is the type that finance the S2 and Tide capital where deals were done at 3% cap with floating rate debt greatly appreciate this!

@BarbarianCap 26h ago

Barbarian Capital on X

Silgan to Combine With Trivium Packaging in $3.4 Billion Deal $SLGN https://t.co/XWQSkZuUO5

@BarbarianCap 26h ago

Barbarian Capital on X

Germany’s Merck to Buy U.K. Biotech Silence Therapeutics for $1.3 Billion $SLN https://t.co/FXr0mtRMow

@BarbarianCap 26h ago 2 clicks

Barbarian Capital on X

H.B. Fuller Rejects Ancora’s Latest Acquisition Bid, Plans to Consider Selling Noncore Businesses $FUL https://t.co/L8b85qb666

@StableBread 26h ago

Fajasy on X

From June 1 to October 16, Boost Run $BRUN fell 77.3%, vs. 37.4-58.7% for CoreWeave $CRWV, Nebius $NBIS, and $IREN. That drop in AI infra stocks is tied to to rising bets on another Fed rate hike. Higher rates hurt GPU clouds in two ways, since they (1) raise the cost of the debt that pays for their GPUs and (2) lower what investors will pay today for profits that arrive years later. But all three peers kept or raised their 2026 targets: → $CRWV: Raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $12.4-13.2B on its Q2 call. → $IREN: Raised its year-end ARR target to more than $4B on July 20. → $NBIS: Reaffirmed its 2026 guidance with its Q2 results. The problem is that lenders are charging more now. CoreWeave’s 9.625% notes due 2032 yielded 14.74% on October 16, up from 13.19% on October 1, meaning CoreWeave would likely pay ~15%/year to borrow the same way today. So the selloff came from how investors now see the cost of funding the demand for GPU clouds, not from the demand itself.

@BarbarianCap 26h ago

Barbarian Capital on X

Tradeweb to Buy Trumid For About $1.97 Billion $TW https://t.co/41iZw4PowI

@BarbarianCap 26h ago

Barbarian Capital on X

CoreWeave’s Business Is Sound Despite Debt Fears, JPMorgan Says $CRWV https://t.co/DKA8ZpjnGb

@BarbarianCap 26h ago 5 clicks

Barbarian Capital on X

Avis Wipeout Erases Last Vestige of 600% Short Squeeze Rally $CAR https://t.co/5YhPTjmIi0

LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $525M

Trade Ideas Flow 37h ago 18 clicks

Sell Eagle Point Credit Now - Match The Loss With Portfolio Gains To Lower Income Taxes

Eagle Point Credit's NAV is down 25% YTD and shares nearly 50%, while its expense ratio climbed to 9.21% despite a 25% yield.

ECC $379M

Anthony Cataldo 39h ago 5 clicks

Build-A-Bear: A Narrower Path

Build-A-Bear's push into prestuffed toys and broader retail distribution tests brand stretchability, but recent results warrant caution.

BBW $317M

TSOH Investment Research 39h ago 15 clicks

The Monday Morning Briefing: Meta, Tesla, Netflix, P&G on Deck

Lennar’s land-bank costs pressure homebuilding margins, while Flowers Foods weighs a Tastykake sale after falling branded-bread share,…

LEN $18BFLO $1.3B

Latticework by MOI Global 41h ago 31 clicks

LendingTree (NASDAQ: $TREE) – A Cyclical Comeback Story Priced as if the Cycle Never Turns

LendingTree derives roughly two-thirds of revenue from insurance and trades near 4 times expected adjusted earnings despite record revenue,…

TREE $362M

Substack von Philipp 42h ago 9 clicks

Our Q3 2026 Update: Our Companies (OXY, RIG, VAL)

Occidental Petroleum’s debt should fall further after Q3 oil prices averaged $85 per barrel WTI and $91 Brent.

OXY $63BRIG $6.2B

Open Insights 43h ago 12 clicks

Undercovered Dozen: Hess Midstream, Iovance Biotherapeutics, Netlist, And More

Hess Midstream, Iovance Biotherapeutics, Netlist and nine other lesser-covered stocks make this week’s Undercovered Dozen.

HESM $6.3BIOVA $6.7B

The Undercovered Dozen Oct 18 15 clicks

Zscaler CEO and CFO: We have the opportunity of a lifetime

Zscaler CEO Jay Chaudhry and CFO Kevin Rubin discuss the cybersecurity company’s growth prospects and valuation.

ZS $34B

The Technology Letter Oct 18 5 clicks

What Lies Beneath: The Developer Building a Data Center on a Former Army Dump Laced With Munitions and Carcinogens

Digital Realty paid $120 million for Atlanta-area parcels including a former Army dump with buried carcinogens and military ordnance.

DLR $60B

Hunterbrook Oct 18 22 clicks

Cerebras Systems: Beaten To A Pulp On Irrational Fears (Rating Upgrade)

Cerebras, a wafer-scale AI chipmaker, is forecast to nearly 10x sales by 2028 as capacity expands, while its shares have fallen on capacity…

CBRS $33B

Stone Fox Capital Oct 18 10 clicks

ABG · long

Asbury Automotive Group INC

Asbury Automotive Group's changed setup and underperformance versus other public dealers form the basis for a renewed long thesis.

ABG $3B

Value Investors Club Jul 9

NKE 2026-09-28

The Monday Morning Briefing: Micron and Nike Earnings on Deck

Micron and Nike earnings headline a weekly briefing featuring Exor’s NAV discount, Meta’s Muse agent and Bellway’s UK housing valuation.

NKE $55B

Latticework by MOI Global Sep 28 3 clicks

Campbell's: Profit Continues To Fall, But The Stock Is Becoming Interesting

Campbell’s $500 million savings program and Rao’s growth could lift EBIT despite weak FY2027 guidance, while volume declines and inflation…

CPB $6B

Investor Overview Sep 28

An open letter to Senator Elizabeth Warren

NAIC oversight missed Delaware Life’s $13.34 billion affiliated-bond exposure and permits capital treatment that props up Brighthouse’s…

BHF $2.8B

Mispriced Assets Sep 27 2 clicks

One Hour Analysis: What would it take to break $BPRE's NAV?

BPRE trades 45% below NAV as Saba and Bulldog press for buybacks or a manager change, challenging Bluerock’s incentive to preserve…

BPRE $1.8B

Investing 501 Sep 27 5 clicks

Hindsight Capital

Hindsight Capital tests crisis-era investment decisions using anonymized company financials, including TransDigm, Halma and Texas Pacific…

TDG $63BTPL $24B

Rebound Capital Sep 27 8 clicks

Sezzle: The Market Is Underestimating This High-Growth Fintech

Sezzle’s Q2 2026 revenue rose 51.7% and adjusted net income 58.4%, while revenue per GMV reached 11.7% as Premium subscriptions lifted…

SEZL $4.5B

Blake Winiecki Sep 27 1 click

New Buy : Honeywell Aerospace $HONA

Honeywell Aerospace, newly spun off as HONA, fell 41% from post-listing highs after Q2 2026 as supply-chain bottlenecks delayed revenue…

HONA $53B

D Invests Sep 26 8 clicks

VersaBank: The Bank Behind the Bank – How a Canadian Branchless Pioneer Wants to Make Asset-Backed Securities Obsolete

VersaBank uses cash holdbacks and put-backs to buy point-of-sale loan cash flows, with C$7 billion in assets and AI-enabled real-time…

VBNK $727M

Substack von Philipp Sep 26 7 clicks

GitLab: Positioned To Benefit From Software Development Explosion

GitLab's Q2 FY2027 beat and raised guidance reflect large deals, paid consumption growth and AI demand, while valuation rests on revenue…

GTLB $8.9B

Research and Value Sep 26 2 clicks

Monday, October 19, 2026

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

Barbarian Capital on X

Barbarian Capital on X

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Fajasy on X

Barbarian Capital on X

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