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Sunday, October 18, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Rate sensitive / consumer spending names starting to really take on water with rates and oil up....Game theory probably suggests the administration is likely to pull more tricks out of their sleeves leading into the midterms to try and increase affability and control rates (at least for talking points). --- Already witnessing a vert activist treasury secretary that (at least so far) did not succeed with his 6B buyback (but next month when the TGA refunding comes out I imagine he will use a much bigger mechanism to manipulate rates through the election) --- I also think the fed is much less likely to raise rates then the market is pricing (the committee members even beyond Warsh do not have the will to raise (Powell, Williams, etc) --- I also believe they will announce some sort of housing plan to have as a talking point for the closing stretch of these raises (down payment assistance, rate support, mass housing supply push on federal lands, etc). Does not matter if they never follow through, but something to come in mind as we play out the coming months I think some select housing plays that are blown out on weak starts, high rates, poor affordability, high commodity prices, etc. could be putting in attractive setups to go the other way for the coming months to election ($QXO, $LOW, $BLDR, $SSD)
@RagingVentures 2 clicks

Raging Capital Ventures on X

$HAWK now trading around $17.15, or -34% below its $26 IPO price. Initial lock-up expired last week, but I think it is unlikely many shares will come to market at these prices. $HAWK is also being added to the $IWM. $HAWK continues to have strong defense tech tailwinds, and they now have $500 mm+ of cash on hand. Valuation is now much more attractive and below the $18.86 price of their pre-IPO Series E financing.

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2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 6 clicks
FINV · long

Finvolution Group

FinVolution, a China and ASEAN unsecured consumer lender, trades at 4x earnings and 0.5x book value.

FINV $698M
Value Investors Club 5 clicks

Twenty Years in the Dark

Tower Properties, $TPRP, went dark after a 2006 squeeze-out cut holders below 300, leaving a Kemper-controlled apartment and office…

TPRP $128M
Orphan REITs 5 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 54 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $7.2B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $7.9B
CV's Substack 20 clicks

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