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Saturday, October 17, 2026

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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $13B
CV's Substack 13 clicks

From X

@ActAccordingly 2 clicks

PAA Research on X

This is one of my favorite charts. It's amazing how small caps went from modestly overbought to NEARLY VIOLENTLY oversold. The picture below tells the story. In general buying when the percentage of Russell 2000 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average drops below 20 has been a massive driver of returns. Conversely selling when the percentage exceeds 70% has preserved capital. The headline here: We're oversold in small caps following the spike in interest rates and crude oil prices. We're not at a clear buy signal yet, but it's close. $IWM
@kevin__mak

Kevin Mak on X

At the risk of "trying to hard to read the tea leaves", when I saw the jury question, my thought was: "They're trying to aggregate the voting blocs" i.e. the jury is split between three possibilities a) $0 no breach b) $1 breach c) $XXX dollars breach and they're trying to figure out if the first two "should be the same group" or not. The real answer is it's impossible to know, it is directionally bearish/informative, but it's also an easy ~$250k PnL trade if you have someone in the courtroom relaying the info to you in real-time and you short off of it.
@kevin__mak

Kevin Mak on X

$NKTR Lots of funky action in this name the past few days, some specific to the ongoing court case and some from bio as a whole. Let's unpack it. The jury note, paraphrased as "Is there a difference between breach + $1 and no breach + $0?", spooked the market and sent the stock down sharply. Two sides to this. First, the note is informative, but only a little. It tells us at least one juror sees the $0/$1 outcome as part of their possible resolution space. Where I think the market (or at least fintwit) got it wrong is treating the note as the voice of the entire jury. It could reflect the whole panel, or it could be a single juror's question. It doesn't even tell us direction: it could come from a juror looking for a way to find breach despite doubting the damages case. The price action implied the whole jury is now choosing between $0 and $1, which I think is a big overread. Second, this is NKTR: a retail/fintwit-heavy, relatively illiquid SMID-cap biotech that moves 5% on a random Tuesday with no news. A 10% move on this headline looks extreme, but near-term price action here mostly reflects value-agnostic traders playing local news and liquidity flow, not a considered repricing of long-term value. The bigger picture: the case is largely a distraction from the real value, which is Rezpeg. I'm not a biotech expert, but the sell side and most biotech specialists I respect see it as a likely viable commercial product that's underpriced here. If anything, the case matters mainly as an overhang. An uncertain $0-to-$1B+ claim is hard for any acquirer or partner to price, so resolution in almost any direction clears the path for corporate action. The distraction is creating the opportunity. Disclosure: Creek Drive and its affiliated funds holds a long position in NKTR. Views expressed are current opinions for information only, subject to change and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future performance. See the disclosures link in my bio for more important information.

Investor Letters

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2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 6 clicks
SMWB · long

Similarweb LTD

Similarweb (SMWB) is presented as a long, revisiting the company’s digital-intelligence business after two prior VIC write-ups.

SMWB $748M
Value Investors Club 11 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 54 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $6.8B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $7.9B
CV's Substack 20 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $92B
Speedwell Research 27 clicks

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