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Saturday, October 17, 2026

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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $13B
CV's Substack 14 clicks

From X

@LittleOwlRes

Little Owl Research on X

In September I had the pleasure of attending the Howard Hughes $HHH annual shareholder meeting. I met the man himself! @BillAckman Not to get ahead of myself, but this could be the beginning of something very special. Today’s quarterly results help to reinforce my views on the quality of both the asset base and management. The company is firing on all cylinders. Management continues to execute on the MPC strategy, and an acquisition seems highly likely in the short term. However, the shares still trade at a deep discount to intrinsic value. Do I care? No—at least not yet. Pershing Square has a truly remarkable track record. Since adopting their “permanent capital” strategy they have done 23.5% net of fees annually since January of 2018. Not too shabby. I suspect they’ll be acquiring a small insurer in the 1.0x-1.4x P/B range, if that’s the case, and they continue to put up those returns, the acquisition will be monstrously accretive. When Buffett took control of Berkshire, it was a failing textile mill with a negative terminal value. Ackman is starting off with assets of much higher quality and that are beginning to generate a lot of excess cash. A lot of work has to be done, but I’m happy to hold my shares here. If you’re interested in learning more about the real estate operations, I’ve attached my $HHH report from November of 2023–obviously outdated, but should help get you up to speed on the history, RE strategy, and asset base—and I will be putting out an updated report after the details of the insurance acquisition are announced. https://t.co/ueKI0TWY9R

Investor Letters

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2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 6 clicks
SMWB · long

Similarweb LTD

Similarweb (SMWB) is presented as a long, revisiting the company’s digital-intelligence business after two prior VIC write-ups.

SMWB $786M
Value Investors Club 11 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 54 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $7.2B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $7.9B
CV's Substack 20 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $92B
Speedwell Research 27 clicks

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