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Saturday, October 17, 2026

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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $13B
CV's Substack 13 clicks

From X

@convequity 4 clicks

Convequity on X

Natural gas itself has not been the scarce input. The turbines have. Once AI data-centre load outran what the grid, renewables, and near-term nuclear could cover on a GW scale, gas became the compromise — and turbine demand surged from 2024–2025. Lead times still run roughly three to five years, with manufacturers already sold out into 2029–2031. That puts the first large batch of those ordered turbines on a delivery horizon closer to the next twelve months. As they arrive, and as behind-the-meter projects sit at or near gas fields, the incremental gas draw is likely to show up in a concentrated window, not a smooth ramp. Storage has grown only modestly while demand has risen, and drilling and pipeline buildout have stayed slow. New customers do not want to wait another three to four years for later turbine slots, so they are also exploring workarounds: reciprocating engines — internal combustion units closer to older, smaller airplane engines than to jets. The tech is not high-end blade metallurgy, so these generators can be mass-produced. They still prefer natural gas (more energy at the same density, and cleaner). Slightly less efficient than a turbine, but available sooner — and still burning gas. Either path concentrates the fuel draw. $AR, $EXE and $CRK are the producers sitting on that timing gap.

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2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 6 clicks
SMWB · long

Similarweb LTD

Similarweb (SMWB) is presented as a long, revisiting the company’s digital-intelligence business after two prior VIC write-ups.

SMWB $748M
Value Investors Club 11 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 54 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $6.8B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $7.9B
CV's Substack 19 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $92B
Speedwell Research 27 clicks

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