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Saturday, October 17, 2026

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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $16B
CV's Substack 13 clicks

From X

@convequity 4 clicks

Convequity on X

Natural gas itself has not been the scarce input. The turbines have. Once AI data-centre load outran what the grid, renewables, and near-term nuclear could cover on a GW scale, gas became the compromise — and turbine demand surged from 2024–2025. Lead times still run roughly three to five years, with manufacturers already sold out into 2029–2031. That puts the first large batch of those ordered turbines on a delivery horizon closer to the next twelve months. As they arrive, and as behind-the-meter projects sit at or near gas fields, the incremental gas draw is likely to show up in a concentrated window, not a smooth ramp. Storage has grown only modestly while demand has risen, and drilling and pipeline buildout have stayed slow. New customers do not want to wait another three to four years for later turbine slots, so they are also exploring workarounds: reciprocating engines — internal combustion units closer to older, smaller airplane engines than to jets. The tech is not high-end blade metallurgy, so these generators can be mass-produced. They still prefer natural gas (more energy at the same density, and cleaner). Slightly less efficient than a turbine, but available sooner — and still burning gas. Either path concentrates the fuel draw. $AR, $EXE and $CRK are the producers sitting on that timing gap.
@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

Another issue with $ROL is that now that it is becoming easier to set up a business and website and market on the web, if i was a pest technician I'd think about how to go solo so that I don't need to give up all my margin to someone else just because they are setting up all the lead gen infrastructure. Not surprised to see pretty bad non-compete terms with $ROL imposes on their technicians. Already seems to be another advantage that is facing pressure.

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2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 6 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

NFLX $511B
TSOH Investment Research 11 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 53 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $88B
Speedwell Research 27 clicks
LLY · long

LILLY (ELI) & CO

Eli Lilly trades at 33 times this year’s earnings and 26 times next year’s, versus roughly 12 times for big pharma peers.

LLY $1.2T
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B
TSOH Investment Research 28 clicks

TSMC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

TSMC reported excellent Q3 results, guided Q4 revenue growth higher and saw its shares slip despite strong AI-driven earnings momentum.

TSM $2.2T
Cestrian Capital Research 10 clicks

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