Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Friday, October 16, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Continue to believe that expiration this week will be the culmination in the software squeeze. Money will want to come off the table ahead of earnings season for the sector, and I think that will be followed with an acknowledgment from earnings that while their revenues are not at risk today - these companies still do face increased competition, lower barriers, higher costs for cloud/inference, and seat based model problems that will be challenging moving forward. The $WDAY rumor news was not the floor, it was the peak counter narrative to AI disruption.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Impressive just how many healthcare companies with no direct or derivative exposure today or at any point to the $MRNA news can rally 10%+ on the day. Be smart for these companies to pocket these gains with secondaries and solidify fragile balance sheets, but in the ultimate short term pump market their management teams will no doubt not want to interrupt their stocks squeeze potential and will not issue shares, but aggressively unload their options
@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

We track insider buying in spinoff or their parents in a custom screen on InsideArbitrage that we like to call the Spinsider. There were three companies (spinoffs or parents of spinoffs) that saw insider buying based on Form 4s filed recently. 1. The home safety and security solutions provider Resideo $RESI completed the spinoff of ADI Global Distribution $ADGI just two weeks ago. This week we saw three different insiders of $RESI buy stock on the open market including the CEO and the General Counsel. $RESI was spun out of Honeywell $HON in 2018, making $ADGI Honeywell's grandchild. 2. Enviri $NVRI was less of a spinoff and more of a breakup. It sold its Clean Earth division to to Veolia Environnement S.A. and paid out $15 per share to shareholders from the proceeds of the sale. It then spun out its Harsco Environmental and Rail divisions and renamed them as Enviri just to confuse us a little. This new Enviri saw insider buying by two insiders including the CEO this week. @valuedontlie especially likes these "stubs" as he likes to call them and has done well with stubs like Starz Entertainment $STRZ Much to my detriment, I kept Lions Gate Studios $LION after the spinoff and sold Starz. 3. The building materials company Amrize $AMRZ, which was spun out of Holcim AG in June 2025 continues to see significant insider buying activity. This month six different insiders including the CFO and the Chief Strategy & M&A Officer purchased shares.
@BlueDuckCap 1 click

BDC on X

Could happen. Also - there will be a massive 2ndary soon and insiders will start dumping shares. I wish this was a cure for cancer. It is not. If it ever even commercializes (still a big if) it will be just another thearaputic that will be sold along with Keytruda and in some cases may deter relapse. That's it. In fact, we may learn that the same lipid nano particles that the mrna technology relies on and which have been speculated to be a cancer causer in their own right (hint, they are) actually cause occurence of other cancers such as colon and pancreatic and breast. Does lowering recurrence in melanoma in exchange for a higher chance of colon cancer sound like a "cure"? I wish it was. No material position as of now. Congrats to bulls, I guess. $MRNA

Investor Letters

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2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 6 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

NFLX $511B
TSOH Investment Research 12 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 54 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $92B
Speedwell Research 27 clicks
LLY · long

LILLY (ELI) & CO

Eli Lilly trades at 33 times this year’s earnings and 26 times next year’s, versus roughly 12 times for big pharma peers.

LLY $1.2T
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B
TSOH Investment Research 28 clicks

TSMC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

TSMC reported excellent Q3 results, guided Q4 revenue growth higher and saw its shares slip despite strong AI-driven earnings momentum.

TSM $2.2T
Cestrian Capital Research 10 clicks

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