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Thursday, October 15, 2026

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Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 51 clicks

From X

@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

Convequity’s AI Bubble Barometer (ABBX) — Week of 2 October 2026 Our weekly framework tracks valuations, returns, capex, financing risk and infrastructure capacity across hyperscalers, neoclouds and model labs. Friday 2 Oct 2026 close (US ET): - Price drove the move: EV rose about $44B to about $14,114B. Invested capital (IC) was unchanged at $2,338B. - EV/IC: 6.04x, up 0.02x from 6.02x on 25 Sep. - All-in EV/IC: 6.76x. 1. Returns. Our paired, annualized forward ROIC (which is not trailing accounting ROIC) for Q2 2026 is 30.0%, against an AI WACC of 9.8%: 3.07x ROIC/WACC and a spread of +20.3 percentage points. 2. Capex. Latest-quarter cash capex is $228.7B. 3. Debt. Borrowings are $595B. All-in exposure is $3,624B, or 6.10x borrowings, adding purchase obligations, construction commitments and uncommenced leases on top of borrowings and leases. 4. Gigawatts. Current capacity is 45.7 GW, with 153.4 GW planned. $MSFT versus $GOOGL: MSFT’s all-in exposure is about 17x borrowings, and it is renting more: external capacity is about 12% now and 21% of planned capacity. GOOGL’s all-in exposure is 10.2x borrowings, while its external capacity share remains small at about 4% now. We see a price-led rise in valuation, with modeled forward returns still well above the cost of capital. Future spending commitments are much larger than borrowings alone suggest, and the reliance on rented capacity differs across companies.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

My investing thesis in a nutshell (w/examples): 1) Buy with a strong margin of safety or stock price near/below cash and/or book value. 2) Buy in industries and/or markets where the money is flowing. Makes it a lot easier. 3) Buy the best early and/or the most overlooked in that particular industry. 4) Pay up for unfair advantages, excellent mgmt teams, and companies with huge latent pricing power. 5) Sell when the thesis breaks. Or a much better risk/reward setup hits your desk. Otherwise continue to add/hold. Don't track stock prices. Track the main business KPIs like any competent mgmt team would. Example #1: Bought $NBIS 4x mid $20's (best overall). Then bought $BRUN common and warrants pre-merger (most overlooked). Example #2: Bought $FTEK $1.39. Cash floor new excellent operator CEO. Strong upside potential w/data centers. Example #3: Bought $BABA $70's. Strong margin of safety, market leader, unfair advantages. Sold $170 for better risk/reward. Example #4: Bought $ELMT @$19 and @$14. Unfair advantage. Strategic. Cheap. Critical in strong growth industries. Example #5: Bought $TOST @$24. Beaten down due to macro headwinds and new/early $DASH competition. But almost everything in business stronger and expanding to new verticals. Lastly, if you're unsure or don't fully understand the business. Just say no. In fact, say no to most stocks. Most probably your best idea is already in your portfolio. Don't lockup your money in a 3/5 setup, you're trying to make outsized returns! And sub to my newsletter (link in bio) if you want my deep dives. 😉
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The hoist at Levack, the flagship mine of Magna Mining $MGMNF (TSX: $NICU), was designed to move 6,000 tons a day, ~5.5x the record Q2 pace at McCreedy West, its producing mine. Most of Levack’s infrastructure is already built. Magna expects to finish refurbishing the hoist and the loading pocket where ore enters the shaft before the end of 2026. Magna is engineering a new ramp from surface (a sloped tunnel trucks can drive down) for the shallower zones, with the shaft serving the deeper Morrison ore. By mid-2026, crews had tunneled into the Intermediate Orebody (IOB), and Magna says mining the drilled part of the IOB “could begin immediately upon a positive restart decision.” CEO Jason Jessup said in July there’s a “very strong possibility that before the end of the year, we will skip first ore,” meaning hoist the first ore up the shaft, with shipments building through H1 2027. In the same interview, he said Levack and Crean Hill, Magna’s permitted nickel mine, are “both working towards commercial production in 2028.” On scale, he expects Levack to produce “possibly two to even three times” McCreedy West’s payable metal, which would make McCreedy West “our smallest mine within the next couple of years.” Magna’s first resource estimate for Levack (its estimate of the metal in the ground) found: → Contact deposits: 5.9Mt indicated at 3.2% copper equivalent (CuEq, which converts every metal into copper at set prices), mostly less than 750 meters deep. → Morrison footwall: 178,000 tonnes indicated at 15.5% CuEq, with the deposit continuing below the deepest drilling. → Total: 6.1Mt indicated at 3.54% CuEq and 5.2Mt inferred at 3.59% CuEq. Indicated tonnes come from drill holes spaced closely enough to support a mine plan. Inferred tonnes rest on fewer, more widely spaced holes, so their size and grade could still change with more drilling. Jessup says “the bulk of the PEA tons will come from the contact nickel zones,” so nickel matters far more to Levack’s PEA (preliminary economic assessment) than to McCreedy West, where it’s 10.3% of metal revenue. The PEA was due in Q3. On September 17, Magna pushed the PEA and Crean Hill’s pre-feasibility study to the first half of October to account for Canada’s proposed Productivity Mega Deduction. The deduction would let miners write off Canadian development spending right away, instead of deducting 30% of the balance a year, so both studies’ after-tax returns should come out higher. Jessup said of the PEA on September 24, “essentially it’s all done,” and he sees a “very high probability” of a restart declaration shortly after the PEA comes out.

Investor Letters

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AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $88B
Speedwell Research 26 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B
TSOH Investment Research 27 clicks

TSMC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

TSMC reported excellent Q3 results, guided Q4 revenue growth higher and saw its shares slip despite strong AI-driven earnings momentum.

TSM $2.3T
Cestrian Capital Research 9 clicks
BLND · long

Blend Labs INC

Blend Labs (BLND) is presented as a long investment idea, with prior VIC writeups cited for business background.

BLND $217M
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

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