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Thursday, October 15, 2026

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Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 50 clicks

From X

@kevin__mak 4 clicks

Kevin Mak on X

I believe there's a high % chance $QURE gets its approval. Stuff like this from the FDA, in my eyes, further strengthens that belief. They want to generally make the review criteria more clear, more patient (advocacy) focused, and more flexible about what evidence is reasonably attainable. Not lenient for the sake of being reckless, but because there are situations that warrant different criteria. I think it would be quite incongruent to be vocally advocating for these new policies (which are suspiciously similar to the QURE debacle), while simultaneously crushing a high-profile drug approval like AMT-130. Incongruent doesn't mean it can't happen, just that it seems like the tail outcome. "The new framework is intended to enable patient input at earlier stages and at milestones throughout the development and review process. It also aims to provide greater clarity and consistency to drug developers on regulatory decision making. The agency said in a statement that it should take into account what evidence is reasonably attainable, given the nature of rare diseases." To be clear, FDA officials denied that the initiative was motivated by the earlier controversies. The connection to AMT-130, and the positive read-through, is my interpretation. "In an interview, senior officials at the agency denied that the initiative had anything to do with the earlier controversies" --- Disclosure: Creek Drive and its affiliated funds holds positions in QURE. Views expressed are current opinions for information only, subject to change and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future performance. See the disclosures link in my bio for more important information.
@AsifSuria 1 click

Asif Suria on X

Now that the Bumble $BMBL deal is confirmed, the key question is: when will this deal close? Usually we get an indication of that in the press release announcing the deal but that was not the case here. There is also something called the "outside date" that is specified in the merger agreement filed with the SEC and this is the drop dead date by which both parties expect to close the deal. Like most things in life, there are exceptions and outside dates often have extensions. In the case of Bumble, the outside date is July 12, 2027. Ithaca has also indicated that they don't plan to close before November 26, 2026. So we land somewhere between November 26, 2026 and July 12, 2027. The average time it takes deals to close based on about 15 years of our internal data tracking M&A is 120 days. Biotech deals generally tend to close much faster and the average there is closer to 90 days. Considering there doesn't appear to be shareholder, financing or antitrust risk here, I would not be surprised if this one closed in less than 90 days. Personally I would prefer that it close in 2027, so I don't have to think about short-term gains this year. Another situation I was involved in last year (the narcolepsy drug company Avadel), ended up closing just days before it would have turned into a long-term position for me and we ended up paying short-term capital gains on it. This is one of the issues with all cash deals that force a tax event for long-term shareholders.
@DOMOCAPITAL 3 clicks

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Fantastic article on $PESI here: https://t.co/7CoHjY2fcZ Extremely undervalued stock and market is putting way too much emphasis on whether or not Washington Ecology approves grouting at 200 East sooner vs later. It's going to happen and the West is already approved. $100+ stock moving forward. This is a $4.4 BILLION dollar project and $PESI has a market cap of just $276M. I expect them to be free cash flow positive by Q4 of this year and then (as you can see in article) the volumes really ramp-up whether grouting is approved or not (and it will be as soon as Ecology can approve without it bolstering Republicans in the mid-terms by giving Trump credit for accelerating a project no other administration cared to accelerate - a huge win for the people of Washington). PESI is the ONLY vendor listed on the official DOE. The facility is only one mile away plus it's a huge benefit to the local unions whose workers get to benefit from a local problem. Governor's of states with competitors have already said there's no way they'd allow the liquid nuclear waste to be transported through their state in order to be treated. There is no competitor for PESI. The market is completely sleeping on this. PESI has line of sight towards potentially $500M of annual, incremental revenue in the coming years with a revenue stream that will last DECADES yet trades at $277M. Not many opportunities like this come along and there is practically zero exposure to any sort of market or economic downturn. This is a court mandated clean-up project that will accelerate no matter what the economy does. Not a recommendation - do your own due diligence - but this is now a significant position for our clients.

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AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $88B
Speedwell Research 22 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B
TSOH Investment Research 26 clicks

TSMC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

TSMC reported excellent Q3 results, guided Q4 revenue growth higher and saw its shares slip despite strong AI-driven earnings momentum.

TSM $2.3T
Cestrian Capital Research 9 clicks
BLND · long

Blend Labs INC

Blend Labs (BLND) is presented as a long investment idea, with prior VIC writeups cited for business background.

BLND $217M
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

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