Thursday, October 15, 2026

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B

WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” Oct 15 51 clicks

Oct 15 MOD $9.2B

Modine Deep Dive

CV's Substack 16 clicks

Oct 15 ASML $631B

ASML Is Building a Hybrid Bonding Tool!

SemiAnalysis 11 clicks

From X

@negligible_cap Oct 5 1 click

Negligible Capital on X

Seems like as good a week as any for $META to raise $50B or so in equity

@John_Hempton Oct 5 4 clicks

John_Hempton on X

@FedexSTi $NU back to the price it was three weeks ago.

@convequity Oct 5 2 clicks

Convequity on X

Anthropic's $518bn of planned compute obligations is about the same size as $AMZN's entire stack of debt, leases and purchase commitments. Convequity's ABBX barometer adds up borrowings, leases, purchase obligations and leases not yet started for each hyperscaler. On that all-in measure, AMZN and Anthropic are roughly level. 1. Against valuation, the number looks normal. At the $2 trillion valuation being debated, Anthropic's obligations are about a quarter of its value. That is close to $GOOGL's ratio and inside the range of the four big hyperscalers. 2. Against revenue, it is large but not extreme. Anthropic told investors its annualized run rate was above $65bn at the end of July. The obligations are about eight times that, spread over roughly a decade. A run rate is the latest month multiplied by twelve, not full-year booked revenue, and the hyperscalers fund their stacks from large, established cash flows. 3. Reuters reports that about 80% of the obligations are non-cancelable or payable regardless of usage, while many of Anthropic's largest customers are not on long-term contracts. I think the size is about right. It fits a $2 trillion company, and at the July pace Anthropic can grow into it. The risk is in the terms: most of the cost is locked in for years, while much of the revenue can leave at short notice. The number to watch now is how much of Anthropic's revenue is under long-term contract.

@John_Hempton Oct 4 2 clicks

John_Hempton on X

@DavidWeinetayg @TidefallCapital Debt covenants matter. It won't however be the first or last company to buy itself back into ch11. I mean look at last quarter's buy backs in $FICO.

@leevalueroach Oct 4 3 clicks

Lee Roach on X

Looks like we got 13.5 million shares trading of $GME tonight. Not sure what’s going on. Besides the heavy insider buys. https://t.co/cU9aBeRwRR

@BarbarianCap Oct 4 1 click

Barbarian Capital on X

$ONON so in vogue, it made it to the WSJ The Sneaker Taking Over America Was Inspired by iPhones and a Vacuum Cleaner https://t.co/rNjjRCEEnb

@Adam_Wyden Oct 4 1 click

Adam D. Wyden on X

@At50w50882 @310Value @ctfn_news All of their existing debt is portable… this was by design and both mgmt / IR call this out regularly. Only need to raise the new debt….dovigi haters are always gonna hate. That’s why it needs to go private $GFL

@partners_road Oct 4 3 clicks

RiverRoadPartners on X

You can trade many things on the Chicago Merc: soyabeans, gold, lean hogs, crude & rates. Now, CME Group plans to introduce a new commodity to the list: compute. CME calls it “the new currency for the AI economy.” Be careful what you wish for (re: price discovery outside $NVDA).

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $88B

Speedwell Research Oct 15 24 clicks

ASML 3Q’26: 2030 Arrived Four Years Early

ASML reported €11.7 billion in 3Q 2026 sales, up 55%, and raised full-year guidance to €44–45 billion as AI-driven semiconductor demand…

ASML $631B

MBI Deep Dives Oct 15 11 clicks

Berkshire B: Holding, Developing Headwinds Have Yet To Reflect In Stock Price, In My View

Berkshire Hathaway trades at 1.46 times book as reinsurance pricing pressure, softer P&C, concentrated equities and cash weigh on its…

BRK.A $1.1T

Pearl Gray Equity and Research Oct 15 3 clicks

[scuttleslops] MRVL, APP, AMZN, Chips

Marvell is positioning networking, optical connectivity and server-management chips as AI data centers link GPUs, custom accelerators and…

MRVL $208B

scuttleblurb Oct 15 12 clicks

AeroVironment: The Value Is There, Growth Will Force The Market To Notice

AeroVironment's $465M LOCUST laser award and earnings beat support its 2027 growth outlook despite government budget uncertainty.

AVAV $6.2B

Melissa Tucker Oct 15 6 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 15 27 clicks

Breaking: The Offshore Monopoly Is Legal Now!

Transocean’s Valaris merger clears regulators, creating a 68-rig offshore driller controlling four in 10 global drillships.

RIG $6.2BVAL $5.8B

Cannibal Stocks Oct 15 39 clicks

Why Broadcom Is My Largest Stock Holding Today

AVGO $1.6T

Fundamental Options Oct 15 2 clicks

October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI…

SOLS $9.7BSBUX $109B

Yet Another Value Podcast Oct 14 87 clicks

An Interview with Nvidia’s Ian Buck on Why GPUs Keep Winning

Nvidia’s Ian Buck says CUDA’s software ecosystem, GPU flexibility and annual Vera Rubin upgrades lower token costs as agentic AI pushes…

NVDA $5.2T

Key Context by Tae Kim Oct 14 4 clicks

SPHR · long

Sphere Entertainment CO

Sphere Entertainment is shifting from construction and startup spending to a high-margin, cash-generative venue-operator model, with…

SPHR $3.7B

Value Investors Club Jul 17 2 clicks

Everyone wants to defend CoreWeave but who really knows

CoreWeave faces fresh skepticism as another AI trade selloff collides with bullish defenses of the company.

CRWV $34B

The Technology Letter Oct 14 6 clicks

A Conversation With Ari Emanuel About Entertainment and AI

Ari Emanuel discusses AI’s impact on Hollywood, live events, social networks and the future of advertising.

TKO $33B

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. Oct 14 7 clicks

RTX Q3 Preview: Two Growth Engines Make This Aerospace And Defense Leader A 'Buy'

RTX’s $289 billion backlog, including $119 billion in defense, supports growth from defense contracts and commercial aerospace aftermarket…

RTX $247B

Blake Winiecki Oct 14 4 clicks

Coherent | Management Call

COHR $52B

P Equity Research Oct 14 18 clicks

The Tesla Story Is Falling Apart, And A Flying Roadster Won't Save It

Tesla’s Q2 revenue rose 26%, but operating margin fell to 1.4% and free cash flow was negative $1.1 billion as valuation reached 215x…

TSLA $1.4T

Julia Ostian Oct 14 5 clicks

My 2028 numbers

ASML’s €11.7 billion quarter benefited from €3.3 billion in installed-base sales and operating leverage, while the MATCH Act threatens…

ASML $631B

Best Anchor Stocks Oct 14 24 clicks

Deep Dive: Applied Materials ($AMAT)

Applied Materials leads wafer-fab deposition and ranks third in etch, positioning it for tougher 3D chip manufacturing as investors weigh a…

AMAT $359B

Rebound Capital Oct 14 29 clicks

First Tracks Biotherapeutics: Teva Validated The Pathway, ANB033 May Own The Receptor

First Tracks Biotherapeutics’ ANB033 posted stronger Phase 1b celiac efficacy than Teva’s IL-15 inhibitor, with $168 million funding…

TEVA $48B

Equity Eagle Oct 14 8 clicks

Research Roundup Vol. LVI

Howmet Aerospace is framed as a beneficiary of turbine and aircraft-engine demand, while J.B.

HWM $88BJBHT $22B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 14 14 clicks

Thursday, October 15, 2026

Negligible Capital on X

John_Hempton on X

Convequity on X

John_Hempton on X

Lee Roach on X

Barbarian Capital on X

Adam D. Wyden on X

RiverRoadPartners on X

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