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Thursday, October 15, 2026

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Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 50 clicks

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

BWX Technologies’ $BWXT commercial segment grew Q2 2026 revenue 72% to $302.5M, while its government segment grew just 2% to $601.3M. $BWXT reported Q2 2026 on August 3, and CEO Rex Geveden called it “another strong quarter characterized by excellent execution across the company”: → Revenue: $901.6M, up 18% y/y (9% organic). → Adjusted EBITDA: $155.5M, up 7%, a 17.2% margin vs. 19.1%. The government segment fell 5% to $126.5M, but grew 22.1% excluding a $29.4M one-time contract gain in Q2 2025, while the commercial segment more than doubled to $36.1M. → EPS: $0.97 GAAP (+14%) and $1.07 non-GAAP (+5%). → FCF: $115.0M, down 9%, as capex rose 27% to $41.4M. → Backlog: $8.4B, up 40% y/y, including $2.26B of government contracts not yet funded by Congress. Q2 bookings were $648.9M vs. $1,640.5M a year earlier, but over the past 12 months, new orders still ran 1.7x revenue. The 2026 guide now calls for $3.8B of revenue, $662-672M of adjusted EBITDA (a 17.5% margin), $4.70-4.80 of non-GAAP EPS, and $345-360M of FCF. In August, $BWXT also changed its guidance for both segments: 1) Government Operations: Lower revenue growth (high single digits, down from low teens) but a higher margin (20.5%, up from 19% at the start of 2026). CFO Mike Fitzgerald said on the Q2 call that high-purity depleted uranium (HPDU) costs are coming in under budget. Most of the segment’s contracts pay $BWXT its costs plus a fee, and the fee goes up when $BWXT spends less than the target cost, so lower HPDU costs mean less revenue but more profit. 2) Commercial Operations: Higher revenue growth (45%, up from 30%), with Precision Components Group (PCG), acquired July 1, adding slightly more than half of the increase, but a lower margin (13%, down from 14%) as $BWXT spends on U.S. capacity and new hires.

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Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B
TSOH Investment Research 27 clicks

TSMC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

TSMC reported excellent Q3 results, guided Q4 revenue growth higher and saw its shares slip despite strong AI-driven earnings momentum.

TSM $2.3T
Cestrian Capital Research 9 clicks

My 2028 numbers

ASML’s €11.7 billion quarter benefited from €3.3 billion in installed-base sales and operating leverage, while the MATCH Act threatens…

ASML $660B
Best Anchor Stocks 23 clicks

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 14 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 12 clicks

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