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Thursday, October 15, 2026

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Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 53 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

Agentic AI is changing the question for every SaaS name. The old one was “how big is the market?” The new one: when agents do the work, does the vendor get bypassed, survive as plumbing, or own the stack? We built a scorecard for that split — and ran the first three deep dives: • $PLTR — Route 3 ownership bet (ontology / multi−domain ops). Structure elite; valuation still has to earn it • $DDOG — Route 2 plumbing agents need. Host telemetry is hard to absorb casually; coding agents + first-party collect is the watch item. Multiple roughly fair • $NET — purest agent-volume rails. Unabsorbable network footprint; physics caps the model layer; ~40x prices in a lot Condensed public version below. Full Part 2 + series for Convequity subscribers.
@AsifSuria 1 click

Asif Suria on X

As I was working through the insider transactions filed last week for our Insider Weekends article that we have published every Sunday for the last 16 years, these four buys from last Friday stood out to me: 💻 1. A rare insider purchase by Intel's CEO Lip Bu Tan, where he bought $10 million worth of stock after the recent pullback at an average price of $95.00. $INTC The last purchase before that was by the CFO David Zinsner who bought shares in January at an attractive price of $42.50 per share. Former CEO @PGelsinger did even better with his purchases in 2023 and 2024, the last of which were at an average price of $22.53. He is up 365% on that purchase. Lip Bu Tan previously purchased $2.5 million worth of Intel stock in November 2023 when he was the CEO of Cadence $CDNS and was an Intel board member. 🚗 2. A purchase by the Chief Accounting Officer of Valvoline $VVV at an average price of $33.20. While the size of the purchase was not large at about $50K, you don't frequently see purchases by Chief Accounting Officers. @ChrisPavese mentioned that Valvoline was a top contributor to the Broyhill Asset Management portfolio in Q1 2026. ☕️ 3. A purchase by a director of the coffee chain Dutch Bros $BROS where he picked up 2,000 shares at an average price of $51.56. He also purchased shares in May of this year at a slightly lower price. 🧑‍🎓 4. A purchase by a director of Universal Technical Institute $UTI at an average price of $25.94 after a massive drop in the stock last week. Competitor Lincoln Education Services $LINC was also down sharply and I remember liking the thesis for the business after attending a presentation at an investor conference a couple of years ago. Unfortunately I didn't act and buy stock right away. Lincoln is up over 50% over the last year and is up 365% over the last five years despite this recent pullback.
@orrdavid 3 clicks

David Orr on X

I privately told a few fund managers I respect these investing themes/theses privately: "AI is going to drive far more medical/biotech research in pursuit of age reversal technologies than we had before. In fact, at least a couple of these are reasonably likely to be the most valuable companies on the planet in 10-20 years." and related, "Many of the old medical research companies are dinosaurs, since their tech will not keep up with the new age of AI driven medical research." I told them this at the start of 2025, and for example mentioned they avoid shorting $ARKG type stocks. I could tell they thought I was completely retarded, out of my mind, etc. A couple thoughts: 1. I bet those people don't think the idea is stupid at all today. and 2. Having a thesis that seems insane but is often wrong is *awesome*. It's a heads you win, tails you lose nothing situation. Besides $MEDP long, I didn't really know how to play the idea other than avoiding a bunch of shorts. These are theses I still very much believe today, and still today I don't see people talking about them.

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Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B
TSOH Investment Research 28 clicks

TSMC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

TSMC reported excellent Q3 results, guided Q4 revenue growth higher and saw its shares slip despite strong AI-driven earnings momentum.

TSM $2.2T
Cestrian Capital Research 10 clicks

My 2028 numbers

ASML’s €11.7 billion quarter benefited from €3.3 billion in installed-base sales and operating leverage, while the MATCH Act threatens…

ASML $631B
Best Anchor Stocks 26 clicks

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $18B
Latticework by MOI Global 15 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $18B
Latticework by MOI Global 13 clicks

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