Wednesday, October 14, 2026

October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.6BSBUX $113B

Yet Another Value Podcast Oct 14 87 clicks

Oct 14 NVDA $5.2T

An Interview with Nvidia’s Ian Buck on Why GPUs Keep Winning

Key Context by Tae Kim 7 clicks

Oct 14 COHR $52B

Coherent | Management Call

P Equity Research 19 clicks

From X

@ActAccordingly Jun 23

PAA Research on X

I've been short $META for a while as I mentioned in previous posts. I'm fully aware that $META has been benefitting in continued shift of ad dollars away from $GOOG (I'm also short $GOOG) as we transition away from the SEO/SEM world to AEO/GEO. However, nothing can mess up a good fundamental story like poor capital allocation and Zuck and co. have demonstrated time and time again that they're willing to pull defeat from the jaws of victory. This latest effort to go and compete with Kalshi, polymarket, and even the traditional broker/dealers to get into betting markets is just another example. Betting markets doesn't represent the existential risk to the biz like AI does, why even consider getting into this now? Based on chatter about their upcoming AI model updates, it seems CAPEX at $META is poised to go way up, yet again. Will the street like that? I guess if their latest model is Mythos quality or better, maybe it will be tolerated. Maybe, but probably not. What is it about Zuck that he feels the need to be all things to all people? Does he not understand the strengths of his own business or is he worried about the duration of those strengths? Maybe it's just ultimate hubris. Either way, at some point soon he probably pulls the reigns back as the market continues to penalize $META for the absurdities of their capital incineration.

@BrokenMoats Jun 23

Broken Moats on X

Little perplexed you get more negative redemption stories around private credit, and the market only sells off the the the pure play PE companies. First derivatives are up? $MFC $FG $MET $WAL all have sizable exposure to the same asset class.....

@HedgeyeRetail Jun 23

Brian McGough on X

$WRBY is bank here. Catalyst calendar is ripe for literally the next 18 months. Numbers are going up, and the multiple with it. https://t.co/4XFZ4oe241

@ActAccordingly Jun 22

PAA Research on X

$PRIM printed above $200 just six weeks ago. This is one violent tape.

@psyopcapital Jun 22 2 clicks

Psyop Capital on X

If it gets to mid to low 20s copart $Cprt seems like a good bet. Insurance mkt will harden and yes they have competition but duopolistic markets are still attractive and at 3-3.5x sales I think you’re good

@HedgeyeRetail Jun 22

Brian McGough on X

$DKS approaching ATH with a solid gain in a red retail tape. We're short it, so it's working against me right now. Recently moved it lower on our Position Monitor as near-term fundys are in the company's favor. Data looks good right now -- but the data doesn't show margins. And that's my biggest concern here -- zero flow through from comp to margin in the DSG concept (especially house of sport). And FL, well, it's still FL. #DickLocker

@HedgeyeRetail Jun 22 1 click

Brian McGough on X

A few weeks back, I said something to the effect of "who could be stupid enough to short $CHWY at $25." Lo and behold, the stock is now ticking at $17.50. My statement was wrong. We're not Long CHWY -- yet -- but this company has a solid moat in a duopoly with $AMZN and it's kind of mind numbing to see it trade at 6.8x EBITDA. Valuation is not a catalyst, but we're definitely doing the deep dive on whether going all in on CHWY sub $20 is the right call. Over a TAIL duration, I don't see how you lose. But over TREND, not so sure. Stay tuned...

@BrokenMoats Jun 22

Broken Moats on X

Almost a 40% spread opened up since the beginning of June (3 weeks ago!) between $MSFT and $SOXX Nearly 60% on $CRM and $SOXX... Buckle up

My 2028 numbers

ASML’s €11.7 billion quarter benefited from €3.3 billion in installed-base sales and operating leverage, while the MATCH Act threatens…

ASML $631B

Best Anchor Stocks Oct 14 27 clicks

Visa: Unpacking The 7 Powers And Forward Valuation Ahead Of Q4 Earnings

Visa’s network economics support long-term compounding, but a 1.7–1.8 forward PEG and risks to high-margin payment revenues limit near-term…

V $763B

C Jessen Oct 14 36 clicks

Deep Dive: Applied Materials ($AMAT)

Applied Materials leads wafer-fab deposition and ranks third in etch, positioning it for tougher 3D chip manufacturing as investors weigh a…

AMAT $329B

Rebound Capital Oct 14 32 clicks

First Tracks Biotherapeutics: Teva Validated The Pathway, ANB033 May Own The Receptor

First Tracks Biotherapeutics’ ANB033 posted stronger Phase 1b celiac efficacy than Teva’s IL-15 inhibitor, with $168 million funding…

TEVA $48B

Equity Eagle Oct 14 8 clicks

Research Roundup Vol. LVI

Howmet Aerospace is framed as a beneficiary of turbine and aircraft-engine demand, while J.B.

HWM $88BJBHT $21B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 14 16 clicks

Lennar: The Misstep Is Temporary, the Operating Machine Is Not

Lennar cut build times to 116 days and adopted an asset-light land model, while gross margin fell to 15.8% from 27.5% as land costs rose.

LEN $18B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 16 clicks

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $18B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 15 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $18B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 13 clicks

ASML Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

ASML reported Q3 sales of €11.7 billion, up 55% year over year, and guided Q4 sales to €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion amid capacity…

ASML $631B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 14 10 clicks

Eaton: Strong Backlog And Margin Recovery Support The Buy Case

Eaton’s backlog, data-center, grid and aerospace demand, plus a 450–500 bp H2 2026 Electrical Americas margin recovery, support the growth…

ETN $156B

Value Capital Research Oct 14 10 clicks

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B

Asian Century Stocks Oct 14 8 clicks

WDC · long

Western Digital CORP

Western Digital, a hard-disk manufacturer, is pitched as a long after significant share-price moves deter investors.

WDC $124B

Value Investors Club Jul 16 7 clicks

Scarcity is the boogey man for ASML, Applied Materials

ASML’s strong quarterly results failed to prevent a selloff, as AI investors focused on scarcity fears facing chip-equipment makers…

ASML $631BAMAT $329B

The Technology Letter Oct 13 9 clicks

Apple HomeView, The New Apple TV, The App Story

Apple HomeView raises questions about demand for expensive Apple devices built around subpar AI.

AAPL $5T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. Oct 13 8 clicks

Expert Call | Corning

Corning’s NVIDIA-backed 10x fiber expansion, enterprise connector demand and carrier capacity plans frame its optical communications…

GLW $115B

P Equity Research Oct 13 38 clicks

Apple and LG, The House For Everyone Else, Agent Standards and Amazon

Apple is leaning on partner integration for the smart home, while Amazon faces strategic choices around AI agents.

AAPL $5TAMZN $2.7T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. Oct 13 6 clicks

Nvidia’s Investor Meeting

Nvidia’s investor meeting features CFO Colette Kress and IR and Strategic Finance VP Toshiya Hari.

NVDA $5.2T

P Equity Research Oct 13 12 clicks

OCP Day One: AMD CEO Sees Strong Demand for AI Inference and CPUs

AMD CEO Lisa Su says demand for AI inference and CPUs continues to rise as computing capacity becomes more valuable.

AMD $887B

Key Context by Tae Kim Oct 13 4 clicks

Rollins (ROL), Verisure (VSURE), and the cost of standing still (Part 2, Verisure)

Verisure’s 6.38 million monitored-alarm subscribers generate 90% recurring revenue, while its disclosed acquisition costs and 6%-8% churn…

ROL $16B

Best Anchor Stocks Oct 13 24 clicks

CarGurus ($CARG): The Auto Trader of America, Priced Like a Used Car

CarGurus, the largest U.S. auto-shopping marketplace, trades near $29 despite roughly $1 billion in expected revenue, $300 million in free…

CARG $2.7B

Substack von Philipp Oct 13 11 clicks

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

PAA Research on X

Broken Moats on X

Brian McGough on X

PAA Research on X

Psyop Capital on X

Brian McGough on X

Brian McGough on X

Broken Moats on X

Investor Letters

Publications we follow

Newsletters 108

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 54 of 245

X accounts we follow

Investor letters we follow

Sectors