Wednesday, October 14, 2026

October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SBUX $109BCMG $39B

Yet Another Value Podcast Oct 14 84 clicks

45h ago NVDA $5.2T

An Interview with Nvidia’s Ian Buck on Why GPUs Keep Winning

Key Context by Tae Kim 3 clicks

Oct 14 COHR $52B

Coherent | Management Call

P Equity Research 17 clicks

From X

@DeepSailCapital Oct 5

Deep Sail Capital on X

$CRDO Just loves the vol doesn’t it. Up 5% / down 4% / up 5%. It’s like it wouldn’t be surprised if it closes at $218 after being down 3% already.

@aleabitoreddit Oct 5

Serenity on X

$AAOI is... finally... done... With their $600m ATM program, turns out it's ~$105.36 average. I do think AOI outperforms $LITE, as long as they stop filing these ATM programs. Just due to their sheer magnitude of ramp with $471m/month transceiver revenue + 400K/month ELSFP coming up.

@ACapitalLP Oct 5 5 clicks

A Capital on X

When rates jerk higher and everything rate-sensitive gets smoked together, that’s when you want to swoop in on the names where you actually have conviction. Rates spike. $FTAI, $CORZ, $CIFR, $OWL all gap down 5%. Did anything change in the catalyst? No? Buy the dislocation.

@ActAccordingly Oct 5 1 click

PAA Research on X

Maybe I'm being too simplistic, but it seems like it's going to be hard for the market to have a sustained move higher if $GS doesn't start acting better.

@ACapitalLP Oct 5

A Capital on X

Should probably look at $FSLR < $175… Just saying.

@negligible_cap Oct 5

Negligible Capital on X

Why is $SPCX up 12% in the last two days https://t.co/UNaneqcrfX

@kab604 Oct 5

kab60 on X

$ABG bought back 7% of shares in H1, $LAD hammered the buyback in Q1 before stock ripped. Robert Penske/Mitsui wants to take over $PAG (at a fwd PE of 15x). Meanwhile rest of sector starting to trade closer to 6x, after $AN CFO spooked mkt.🧐

@convequity Oct 5

Convequity on X

High-bandwidth memory generally costs about 5x more per GB than conventional DRAM. As AI systems support longer context windows and more complex reasoning, memory demand is spreading into conventional DRAM and NAND. The mechanism is a tiered memory system. HBM holds active model weights and the context needed now. External DRAM holds a broader pool of context that the model can retrieve, while NAND-based SSDs store less frequently used context and model checkpoints. This keeps more context accessible at a lower cost, with a latency trade-off. Memory producers are operating at approximately 80% gross margins and 60%+ EBIT margins. The industry's through-cycle average gross margin has been 35-40%, and past peaks rarely exceeded 55-60%. Supply explains much of this. Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron invested heavily in capacity during the 2021-2022 boom. That capacity came online in 2023 and 2024, when smartphone, PC and non-AI server demand was weak. All three cut production, recorded operating losses and set conservative capex plans. Samsung cut DRAM output by approximately 15-20% in 2023. The capacity response as of mid-2026: 1. Samsung has targeted a roughly 50% increase in HBM production capacity this year. 2. SK Hynix has accelerated its HBM4 ramp through the M15X fab, while reportedly redirecting some planned HBM4 capacity toward DDR5. 3. $MU has accelerated DRAM and HBM output in Taiwan. Meaningful wafer starts from its new US and Singapore facilities are not expected until 2027 and beyond. These additions are weighted toward HBM and high-end server DRAM, not broad conventional memory capacity. They appear insufficient to close the gap in the near term, so the unusually high margins look likely to persist for several more quarters.

My 2028 numbers

ASML’s €11.7 billion quarter benefited from €3.3 billion in installed-base sales and operating leverage, while the MATCH Act threatens…

ASML $660B

Best Anchor Stocks Oct 14 23 clicks

Visa: Unpacking The 7 Powers And Forward Valuation Ahead Of Q4 Earnings

Visa’s network economics support long-term compounding, but a 1.7–1.8 forward PEG and risks to high-margin payment revenues limit near-term…

V $731B

C Jessen Oct 14 35 clicks

Deep Dive: Applied Materials ($AMAT)

Applied Materials leads wafer-fab deposition and ranks third in etch, positioning it for tougher 3D chip manufacturing as investors weigh a…

AMAT $359B

Rebound Capital Oct 14 28 clicks

First Tracks Biotherapeutics: Teva Validated The Pathway, ANB033 May Own The Receptor

First Tracks Biotherapeutics’ ANB033 posted stronger Phase 1b celiac efficacy than Teva’s IL-15 inhibitor, with $168 million funding…

TEVA $48B

Equity Eagle Oct 14 7 clicks

Research Roundup Vol. LVI

Howmet Aerospace is framed as a beneficiary of turbine and aircraft-engine demand, while J.B.

HWM $86BJBHT $22B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 14 12 clicks

Lennar: The Misstep Is Temporary, the Operating Machine Is Not

Lennar cut build times to 116 days and adopted an asset-light land model, while gross margin fell to 15.8% from 27.5% as land costs rose.

LEN $17B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 13 clicks

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $17B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 13 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $17B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 11 clicks

ASML Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

ASML reported Q3 sales of €11.7 billion, up 55% year over year, and guided Q4 sales to €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion amid capacity…

ASML $660B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 14 7 clicks

Eaton: Strong Backlog And Margin Recovery Support The Buy Case

Eaton’s backlog, data-center, grid and aerospace demand, plus a 450–500 bp H2 2026 Electrical Americas margin recovery, support the growth…

ETN $156B

Value Capital Research Oct 14 6 clicks

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B

Asian Century Stocks Oct 14 6 clicks

WDC · long

Western Digital CORP

Western Digital, a hard-disk manufacturer, is pitched as a long after significant share-price moves deter investors.

WDC $142B

Value Investors Club Jul 16 5 clicks

Scarcity is the boogey man for ASML, Applied Materials

ASML’s strong quarterly results failed to prevent a selloff, as AI investors focused on scarcity fears facing chip-equipment makers…

ASML $660BAMAT $359B

The Technology Letter Oct 13 6 clicks

Apple HomeView, The New Apple TV, The App Story

Apple HomeView raises questions about demand for expensive Apple devices built around subpar AI.

AAPL $5T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. Oct 13 6 clicks

Expert Call | Corning

Corning’s NVIDIA-backed 10x fiber expansion, enterprise connector demand and carrier capacity plans frame its optical communications…

GLW $126B

P Equity Research Oct 13 37 clicks

Apple and LG, The House For Everyone Else, Agent Standards and Amazon

Apple is leaning on partner integration for the smart home, while Amazon faces strategic choices around AI agents.

AAPL $5TAMZN $2.7T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. Oct 13 4 clicks

Nvidia’s Investor Meeting

Nvidia’s investor meeting features CFO Colette Kress and IR and Strategic Finance VP Toshiya Hari.

NVDA $5.2T

P Equity Research Oct 13 11 clicks

OCP Day One: AMD CEO Sees Strong Demand for AI Inference and CPUs

AMD CEO Lisa Su says demand for AI inference and CPUs continues to rise as computing capacity becomes more valuable.

AMD $959B

Key Context by Tae Kim Oct 13 3 clicks

Rollins (ROL), Verisure (VSURE), and the cost of standing still (Part 2, Verisure)

Verisure’s 6.38 million monitored-alarm subscribers generate 90% recurring revenue, while its disclosed acquisition costs and 6%-8% churn…

ROL $15B

Best Anchor Stocks Oct 13 23 clicks

Expectations going higher for Everpure, DigitalOcean

Everpure and DigitalOcean face rising expectations as their stock prices shape Monday’s views.

DOCN $13B

The Technology Letter Oct 12 6 clicks

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Deep Sail Capital on X

Serenity on X

A Capital on X

PAA Research on X

A Capital on X

Negligible Capital on X

kab60 on X

Convequity on X

Investor Letters

Publications we follow

Newsletters 107

YouTube 4

Blogs 17

Seeking Alpha 50 of 233

X accounts we follow

Investor letters we follow

Sectors