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Wednesday, October 14, 2026

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October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7BCMG $39B
Yet Another Value Podcast 86 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

Judging Tower Semiconductor ($TSEM) by how advanced its chip process is misses what its chips are for. Skeptics often set Tower's older 65 nm process against the more advanced processes at TSMC ($TSM). That yardstick suits logic chips, which are judged on transistor density. It does not suit the analog chips Tower makes for optics. 1. In an optical engine, the analog front-end is the circuitry that drives the laser and reads the returning light. It needs speed, linearity and power efficiency, not maximum transistor density. 2. Tower's strength is its silicon-germanium BiCMOS processes. They have long dominated the merchant market for these laser-driver and receiver chips because they deliver high performance without the most advanced CMOS logic. 3. A less noticed strength is hybrid bonding. Co-packaged optics needs an electronic chip bonded reliably onto a photonic one. Tower already runs mature, high-yield hybrid bonding for stacked image sensors in high-end phones, where a signal-processing chip is bonded onto a light-sensing chip. A close technical parallel, already at volume. The limit: if the electronic chip has to take on more complex signal processing, such as clock recovery or adaptive equalization, TSMC's advanced FinFET processes do offer real advantages in power and integration. Different foundries may end up making different parts of the system. So Tower's position in optics rests on silicon-germanium and photonic process expertise, not on advanced logic.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Bro, $AMZN semi ETF portfolio is probably going to end up more compelling than what $NVDA owns... Today Amazon signed a $49.8M private placement into PCB maker Gold Circuit Electronics (2368). So now Amazon has ownership/warrants in: - $AAOI - Alchip - $MRVL (Celestial) - $ALAB - $CRDO - $JBL - $FLEX - $STM - $CBRS - $GNRC - $FN - TD SYNNEX - $QCOM - Gold Circuit Electronics And others.. If we look at the private placement amount for GCE in speciifc, it's like .36% of the company... Kinda small financially, meaningful strategically. Esp. since there were claims that GCE supplies ASIC-server PCBs to the four major hyperscaler CSPs... Regardless it's pretty funny to see Amazon to Nvidia start to own all the worlds leading companies. Since Amazon has exposure to the entire supply chain like PCBs now, optical fabric with Celestial, lasers with $AAOI, assembly from $FN to $JBL, ASIC partners like $QCOM / ALchip.
@kevin__mak

Kevin Mak on X

$QURE A bunch has been written about today's AMT130 news by people far more scientifically credible than me, so I'll just summarize to say my opinion is that the data was directionally bearish but only mildly. I think the reaction to the news was overblown. If you gave me the press release and conference call ahead of time and asked me to guess "what does the price trade to", I'd say around $32. Lots of people have complained about the type and quality of disclosure and messaging from the company but I want to highlight something I noticed that I think has been missed. My experience this morning was that the actual press release process was entirely mishandled. Here's what I think happened: 7:05AM ET is the "typical release time" for QURE. So naturally when they setup an interview with Stat News and Bloomberg the night before, they likely communicated this "embargo time". So at 7:05AM, the pre-written articles from Stat and Bloomberg hit the newswires. Bloomberg's article was particularly poorly done, with exceptionally little detail beyond the "-44% not stat sig" datapoint. (They later "updated" their news article to be more robust). But this awful article was essentially first to hit the headlines, and obviously thousands of bots and machines are scraping Bloomberg, and trading off it. Naturally one would want to "check for more data beyond two articles", but for some reason, at 7:05AM, there was no Press Release from QURE. This was likely a mistake (either by QURE or by the wire company). In the screenshot (and link) below, you'll see the timestamp of the official wire including ALL of the data. So investors were "left in the dark" for a full 7 minutes. https://t.co/zp4lmZqFfe Does 7 minutes really matter? To a long term investor, certainly not. But it matters to algo traders, who leave footprints of price action, which affect sentiment, so it does matter. Also, it leaves me unsettled that they're possibly getting some of the most basic things wrong. I get their jobs are stressful and there's a lot on the line here, that's why you have to dot your i's, cross your t's, because everything matters. To be clear, I don't know for a fact who's error this was, but I'd speculate it was the company. (Here's a normal press release from the company timestamped at 7:05AM ET. There are many other examples on the site that corroborate the 7:05 ET pattern) https://t.co/miNzObOZP7 Disclosure: Creek Drive and its affiliated funds hold a long position in QURE. Views expressed are current opinions for information only, subject to change and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future performance. See the disclosures link in my bio for more important information.

Investor Letters

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Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 14 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 12 clicks

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B
Asian Century Stocks 6 clicks
SRTA · long

Strata Critical Medical INC

Strata Critical Medical, SRTA, supplies organ-transport products tied to U.S. transplant growth.

SRTA $382M
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Vicor Update, Part Two

Vicor uses ITC exclusion-order cases to license power-module patents, with published royalty multipliers rising from 1.0x before filing to…

VICR $10B
CV's Substack 4 clicks

Expert Call | Nebius

Nebius’s 1 GW annual active-capacity target from 2027 is realistic, according to a former product manager, with greenfield data centers…

NBIS $56B
P Equity Research 4 clicks

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