Monday, October 5, 2026

Selling Cenovus: Up 78% in 10 Months

Cenovus Energy, up 78% in 10 months, is sold after agreeing to buy Athabasca Oil for $5.7 billion at a rich valuation.

CVE $58B

Bison Insights Oct 5 2 clicks

Oct 5 GFL $15B

The Final Countdown: An Update on GFL’s Sale

310 Value’s Newsletter

Oct 5 CRWV $43B

The Thin Margin of Safety in Selling Compute

MBI Deep Dives 9 clicks

From X

@negligible_cap Sep 11

Negligible Capital on X

*CORNING ENTERS UP TO $2B EQUITY DISTRIBUTION DEAL $GLW announces a $2B at-the-market offering of common stock. More supply inbound

@negligible_cap Sep 11

Negligible Capital on X

I simply refuse to believe that $ADBE has over 1 billion monthly active users https://t.co/U7tgBRDhM2

@KEDM_COM Sep 11 2 clicks

KEDM.com on X

Deckers Outdoor $DECK increased its buyback authorization by $3.5bn to $5bn. Not bad for a ~$11bn market cap. And it makes sense: msd-hsd topline growth, >20% EBITDA margins, over 70% FCF conversion, strong and rapidly increasing net cash position. They bought back ~6.5% of s/o last year. 10x EV/EBITDA seems too low.

@TidefallCapital Sep 11

Trevor Scott on X

The VMS thesis: "AI is actually a tailwind" "I think most people -this is not a fact in dispute that AI is TAM expanding for software. The debate is who's going to be the claim that TAM expansion. We have a strong thesis that incumbents have a high, high, high right to win." $ROP

@TidefallCapital Sep 11 1 click

Trevor Scott on X

"I've never been more excited than I have in my career about the opportunity in front of us with AI. We are literally delivering a button when you press it magic happens. And I've always been in like the boring part of software and all of a sudden, software is not boring." $ROP https://t.co/AIQZYxhy8R

@TidefallCapital Sep 11

Trevor Scott on X

"Product velocity through agentic use cases has increased. We're going through a massive amount of commercial learnings right now. Agentic AI products are hitting the market... The surface area software has just expanded massively because of AI." - $ROP (Citi 2026 TMT)

@TidefallCapital Sep 11

Trevor Scott on X

"We have a business in pharmacy automation. Every prescription today has to be manually verified by a pharmacist today, it costs $1-$2. Our first agentic tool does that at a quality level that's higher than a human and we charge about $0.30. So very tangible ROI from day 1." $ROP

@TidefallCapital Sep 11

Trevor Scott on X

$ROP CFO on private equity being under pressure to return capital showing up in 2027. https://t.co/Xsd1BdKlNc

Portfolio Update September 2026

Portfolio added Otis Worldwide in the mid-$60s, increased Pool, Copart and Floor & Decor, and sold Berkshire Hathaway.

OTIS $25BCPRT $25B

D Invests Oct 5 1 click

Ciena, A Former Telecom Bust, Is Now In The Early Stages Of A Bona Fide Mega Boom

Ciena’s optical networking equipment sales to stronger telecom customers underpin a 2027 long thesis, unlike its 2000-era boom.

CIEN $57B

Marc Gerstein Oct 5 2 clicks

Brazil could be the Q4 Macro Play – My stock ideas: $NU, $INTR, $PICS and maybe $STNE, $PAGS, $DLO and $MELI

Brazilian fintechs NU, INTR and PICS stand to benefit from a Bolsonaro-led runoff surprise that lowers fiscal risk premiums, rates and the…

NU $74B

Substack von Philipp Oct 5 3 clicks

NVIDIA SERIES | PART 1 : Jensen's Math and the Blackwell Gap: Dies, Chips, GPUs, and Revenue

Nvidia’s Blackwell GPU rollout created an AI compute oversupply after customers preordered millions of chips amid expected shortages.

NVDA $5.5T

Kakashii's Materials Oct 5 1 click

British American Tobacco: Harvest

British American Tobacco’s U.S. reset revives combustibles and rebuilds its nicotine-pouch portfolio after legacy-brand writedowns and Velo…

BTI $121B

Invariant Oct 4 5 clicks

Practical Parametric Yield

Cerebras’s WSE-3 faces parametric-yield constraints that could restrict supply, making power and clock-speed tradeoffs central to its next…

CBRS $39B

Irrational Analysis Oct 4 3 clicks

M&T: Buy Reaffirmed, Despite Market Pullback, As Growth And Earnings Story Remain Strong

M&T Bank's 10.4% five-year revenue CAGR, improving net interest margin and commercial loan growth support its earnings resilience despite a…

MTB $31B

Albert Anthony Oct 3 2 clicks

The Art of Doing Financial Engineering

AI infrastructure’s $6.3 trillion financing gap is driving structured debt and asset-backed solutions, starting with Meta’s planned 5GW…

META $1.8TMS $294B

Net Interest Oct 3 5 clicks

Walmart: Fiscal 2028 Consensus Leaves No Room For Diesel Or Rollbacks

Walmart's FY28 consensus requires 15–18% operating-income growth above plan despite diesel costs, price investments and a non-recurring…

WMT $877B

Sameer Shahzad Oct 3 2 clicks

EXCLUSIVE: Lennar’s Big New Customer Is Its Own Spinoff, Millrose

Lennar is selling homes to former spinoff Millrose, whose revenue largely comes from Lennar and whose largest voting shareholder is…

LEN $18B

Hunterbrook Oct 2 2 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/02/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Meta’s AI agent ambitions, Netflix’s TV gaming strategy and Arc’teryx’s rise from $500 million to more than $2…

META $1.8TNFLX $511B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 2 3 clicks

Nike: The Defense Holds, the Offense Is Unproven

Nike targets EBIT margin recovery from 5.2% in FY2027 to 13% by FY2032 as revenue declines persist and wholesale, China and digital remain…

NKE $51B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 2 clicks

[scuttleslops] Cloudflare wants bots to pay; OpenAI’s ad ambitions; Memory chip competition; Muse is a proactive assistant; the Wintel of cars and robots; Atlassian as a coordinating layer

Cloudflare is building HTTP 402 payments for AI agents, using its web network to let publishers charge bots for content access.

NET $125B

scuttleblurb Oct 2 1 click

Nike, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Nike’s second Latticework program examines the company and the global athletic footwear and apparel industry for professional investors.

NKE $51B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 1 click

Nike, Part One: The Story

Nike grew from a $1,000 shoe-distribution venture in 1964 into the largest sports brand, using athlete endorsements, product innovation and…

NKE $51B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 2 clicks

ServiceNow: Still A 'Strong Buy' As AI Revenues Gain Traction

ServiceNow expects AI annual contract value to reach $1.5 billion by year-end, with assist-pack consumption pricing supporting growth…

NOW $145B

Jetstream Research Oct 2 1 click

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) Stock Rating: Accumulate After Q2 FY12/26 Earnings

Rocket Lab reported Q2 revenue up 62% to $234.1 million and backlog up 137% to $2.36 billion, while operating losses and cash burn…

RKLB $40B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 2

American Healthcare REIT: A Dip Buy Driven By Senior-Care And Outpatient Tailwind

American Healthcare REIT’s senior-housing and outpatient portfolio is driving FFO growth and dividend safety, while a rich valuation limits…

AHR $12B

Albert Anthony Oct 2 1 click

Sleep Well Portfolio (Sept 2026) - New Pick coming up - SWI#25.

CrowdStrike faces a trim at a $270 billion valuation and 140x free cash flow, despite AI-driven cybersecurity demand and a $20 billion ARR…

CRWD $267B

Sleep Well Investments Oct 2 2 clicks

Twilio (NYSE: TWLO) Stock Rating: Hold After Q2 FY12/26 Earnings - Distribute Below $260

Twilio posted Q2 revenue of $1.50 billion, up 22%, and guided 16% Q3 growth; the note rates TWLO Hold at $305, with a $260 risk line.

TWLO $42B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 1 1 click

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