Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Monday, October 5, 2026

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𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲. It’s funny: most people think the proliferation of information has made finding dislocations harder. I’d argue the opposite. When information was scarce, speed was the edge. Today the problem is information overload. Social media, AI, headlines, experts, hot takes. Just like different news organizations (CNN, Fox, MSNOW) can frame the same political candidate through completely different lenses, markets create narratives that can overwhelm the underlying facts. Every trade is a spread between perception and truth. Merger arb just makes that spread explicit because you have a relatively fixed endpoint (the deal consideration). Regular-way equities are harder because “truth” is a moving target. But you don’t need to know whether $TLN is worth $350, $370 or $390 to recognize when Josh Shapiro and data-center pushback have distorted perception enough to send it to $270. You don’t need to perfectly value every business line of $OWL to recognize when a Bloomberg story has caused the market to paint the entire business with the private-credit apocalypse brush. And it works both ways: $GLND wasn’t suddenly a critical-minerals bonanza because of a Trump headline. Sometimes the narrative creates the overvaluation. Having the best model or talking to the most experts helps you estimate truth. But truth without an understanding of perception isn’t a trade. You can be a little wrong on intrinsic value and still make a lot of money if you correctly identify that the market’s narrative has overshot reality. The edge today isn’t knowing whether something is worth exactly $37 or $39. It’s understanding why it’s trading at $27 in the first place, whether that perception is wrong, and what makes the gap close…

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British American Tobacco: Harvest

British American Tobacco’s U.S. reset revives combustibles and rebuilds its nicotine-pouch portfolio after legacy-brand writedowns and Velo…

BTI $121B
Invariant 5 clicks
CNH · long

Cnh Industrial NV

CNH Industrial, the No. 2 global agricultural-equipment OEM, is pitched long at about $10 per share.

CNH $14B
Value Investors Club 1 click

What I've Been Reading

Yesway, Dollar General and Expedia feature in a research roundup spanning convenience retail, discount stores and AI-driven travel search.

YSWY $1.4BDG $27B
Stock Thoughts

Everyone Bought the Shovels

Element Solutions sells consumable chipmaking chemistry, with a $75 target from $44 based on an AI-driven semiconductor-materials rerating.

ESI $8.9B
Mispriced Assets

Maker of Men

James B. Duke built American Tobacco into a monopoly, then extended his legacy through Duke Power and the Duke Endowment.

BTI $121B
Invariant

Under The Hood - Rollins ($ROL)

Rollins ($ROL) pairs automatically renewing pest-control contracts with route density and family-business acquisitions, producing 24…

ROL $16B
Bearhold Research

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