Monday, October 5, 2026

Selling Cenovus: Up 78% in 10 Months

Cenovus Energy, up 78% in 10 months, is sold after agreeing to buy Athabasca Oil for $5.7 billion at a rich valuation.

CVE $61B

Bison Insights Oct 5 3 clicks

Oct 5 GFL $15B

The Final Countdown: An Update on GFL’s Sale

310 Value’s Newsletter

Oct 5 CRWV $43B

The Thin Margin of Safety in Selling Compute

MBI Deep Dives 10 clicks

From X

@DeepSailCapital Oct 5 2 clicks

Deep Sail Capital on X

$MELI - Long term vision. https://t.co/EXtoxpWBg3

@DeepSailCapital Oct 5 1 click

Deep Sail Capital on X

@AtlasShrug1 The JV with Sharon AI. Look into that. The PPA gives away 5% equity for the right for $NUAI to buy power from Vista.

@DeepSailCapital Oct 5 3 clicks

Deep Sail Capital on X

Because they are bullshiting everyone. $NUAI https://t.co/FMGotqQuEr

@RagingVentures Oct 5 1 click

Raging Capital Ventures on X

@TarekAntaki I bought $CHTR stock today as well, Godspeed!

@ACapitalLP Oct 5

A Capital on X

𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲. It’s funny: most people think the proliferation of information has made finding dislocations harder. I’d argue the opposite. When information was scarce, speed was the edge. Today the problem is information overload. Social media, AI, headlines, experts, hot takes. Just like different news organizations (CNN, Fox, MSNOW) can frame the same political candidate through completely different lenses, markets create narratives that can overwhelm the underlying facts. Every trade is a spread between perception and truth. Merger arb just makes that spread explicit because you have a relatively fixed endpoint (the deal consideration). Regular-way equities are harder because “truth” is a moving target. But you don’t need to know whether $TLN is worth $350, $370 or $390 to recognize when Josh Shapiro and data-center pushback have distorted perception enough to send it to $270. You don’t need to perfectly value every business line of $OWL to recognize when a Bloomberg story has caused the market to paint the entire business with the private-credit apocalypse brush. And it works both ways: $GLND wasn’t suddenly a critical-minerals bonanza because of a Trump headline. Sometimes the narrative creates the overvaluation. Having the best model or talking to the most experts helps you estimate truth. But truth without an understanding of perception isn’t a trade. You can be a little wrong on intrinsic value and still make a lot of money if you correctly identify that the market’s narrative has overshot reality. The edge today isn’t knowing whether something is worth exactly $37 or $39. It’s understanding why it’s trading at $27 in the first place, whether that perception is wrong, and what makes the gap close…

@DeepSailCapital Oct 5 1 click

Deep Sail Capital on X

@BitcoinAIGuy @optionology What assets does $NUAI actually own? A few million of real estate in Texas? Why is everyone so bullish on a company that was run / pivoted into “power shells” by a shady oil field guy like E Will Gray II?

@Fierce__beast Oct 5

Fierce_beast on X

@paulcerro $evlv seems like a pretty difficult biz

@stockgutter Oct 5

SG on X

@MattJMcClintock you don't need to squint to see the underperformance of $RH vs the rest of sector over the past month or ytd 😉 https://t.co/lyt7NOg23h

Portfolio Update September 2026

Portfolio added Otis Worldwide in the mid-$60s, increased Pool, Copart and Floor & Decor, and sold Berkshire Hathaway.

OTIS $26BCPRT $25B

D Invests Oct 5 1 click

Ciena, A Former Telecom Bust, Is Now In The Early Stages Of A Bona Fide Mega Boom

Ciena’s optical networking equipment sales to stronger telecom customers underpin a 2027 long thesis, unlike its 2000-era boom.

CIEN $57B

Marc Gerstein Oct 5 2 clicks

Brazil could be the Q4 Macro Play – My stock ideas: $NU, $INTR, $PICS and maybe $STNE, $PAGS, $DLO and $MELI

Brazilian fintechs NU, INTR and PICS stand to benefit from a Bolsonaro-led runoff surprise that lowers fiscal risk premiums, rates and the…

NU $75BINTR $3.3B

Substack von Philipp Oct 5 4 clicks

Nyxoah: Label Expansion Set To Unlock A Monopoly In A Billion Dollar Market.

Nyxoah's Genio implant could reach CCC patients after an FDA label expansion, targeting 30% of the obstructive sleep apnea device market by…

NYXH $130M

Stephen Tobin Oct 5 3 clicks

OMSE 2026-10-05

The Monday Morning Briefing: AI Drives Everything, Yet ROI on Massive Capex Remains Uncertain

Latticework’s briefing questions AI capex returns while featuring Close Brothers, Green Landscaping and OMS Energy Technologies.

OMSE $177M

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 5 2 clicks

British American Tobacco: Harvest

British American Tobacco’s U.S. reset revives combustibles and rebuilds its nicotine-pouch portfolio after legacy-brand writedowns and Velo…

BTI $121B

Invariant Oct 4 5 clicks

Practical Parametric Yield

Cerebras’s WSE-3 faces parametric-yield constraints that could restrict supply, making power and clock-speed tradeoffs central to its next…

CBRS $39B

Irrational Analysis Oct 4 3 clicks

Did Group 1 Overpay for Hennessy? The Seller’s Own Banker Says It Was a Record.

Group 1 paid $1 billion of goodwill for Hennessy’s 10 dealerships, a record $100 million per store, financed largely with $1.25 billion of…

GPI $2.7B

Cannibal Stocks Oct 4 4 clicks

The Art of Doing Financial Engineering

AI infrastructure’s $6.3 trillion financing gap is driving structured debt and asset-backed solutions, starting with Meta’s planned 5GW…

MS $294B

Net Interest Oct 3 5 clicks

Magnolia Oil & Gas: The WildFire Acquisition Closes

Magnolia Oil & Gas closed its $4 billion WildFire acquisition, adding Eagle Ford acreage with cost synergies and funding the deal with…

MGY $6.7B

Long Player Oct 3 2 clicks

SLS · short

Sellas Life Sciences Group I

SELLAS Life Sciences Group faces a short case arguing that even a strong clinical outcome does not support its current valuation.

SLS $2.4B

Value Investors Club May 25

FTAI Power and QXO's next aquistion

FTAI Power plans to convert CFM56 jet engines into 25 MW gas turbines for data centers, targeting 100 annual units and $750 million to $1…

FTAI $17BQXO $11B

Kairos Research Jan 20 1 click

Coupang Expert Insight Interview (No Paywall)

Coupang’s former strategy VP discusses Taiwan expansion, 1P-versus-3P economics, margins and competitive risks as CPNG trades 35% below its…

CPNG $27B

Speedwell Memos Jan 20 1 click

LandBridge: It’s the Pore Space Stupid!

LandBridge’s produced-water pore-space royalties, 69% of Q3 2025 revenue, offer durable value beyond its volatile Permian data-center…

LB $6.7B

310 Value’s Newsletter Jan 19 2 clicks

Uber Stock Breakdown (Five Minute Money)

Uber’s $50 billion revenue and $4.5 billion operating profit reflect a turnaround from years of subsidy-heavy growth, with autonomous…

UBER $146B

Speedwell Memos Jan 16 2 clicks

Pool Corporation "Undisputed Industry Leader"

Pool Corporation derives 65% of sales from maintenance and repair, while scale and acquisitions support a 40-50% share of pool supplies.

POOL $5.8B

D Invests Jan 15

Green Dot: Creating a Standalone BaaS Bank

Green Dot creates a standalone banking-as-a-service bank.

GDOT $707M

Clark Street Value Jan 13 2 clicks

Telephone and Data Systems (TDS): The New TDS

Telephone and Data Systems, a $4.8 billion telecom holding company, is being reassessed after a decade of convoluted investor messaging.

TDS $3.9B

Kerrisdale Capital Jan 7

Return of the Power King

China Yuchai (CYD) seeks a 2026 rerating as governance normalization, global expansion, AI data-center power demand, and green-powertrain…

CYD $1B

Maius Partners Jan 4 6 clicks

Contrarian Low-Cost Producer at a 15% FCF Yield + Excess Real Estate

California Resources (CRC) trades at a 15% FCF yield, owns roughly $80 per share of proven reserves and acquired Berry Petroleum at a steep…

CRC $4.8B

Base Hit Investing Dec 29

Deep Sail Capital on X

Deep Sail Capital on X

Deep Sail Capital on X

Raging Capital Ventures on X

A Capital on X

Deep Sail Capital on X

Fierce_beast on X

SG on X

Investor Letters

Publications we follow

Newsletters 107

YouTube 4

Blogs 17

Seeking Alpha 49 of 225

X accounts we follow

Investor letters we follow

Sectors