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Monday, October 5, 2026

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@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲. It’s funny: most people think the proliferation of information has made finding dislocations harder. I’d argue the opposite. When information was scarce, speed was the edge. Today the problem is information overload. Social media, AI, headlines, experts, hot takes. Just like different news organizations (CNN, Fox, MSNOW) can frame the same political candidate through completely different lenses, markets create narratives that can overwhelm the underlying facts. Every trade is a spread between perception and truth. Merger arb just makes that spread explicit because you have a relatively fixed endpoint (the deal consideration). Regular-way equities are harder because “truth” is a moving target. But you don’t need to know whether $TLN is worth $350, $370 or $390 to recognize when Josh Shapiro and data-center pushback have distorted perception enough to send it to $270. You don’t need to perfectly value every business line of $OWL to recognize when a Bloomberg story has caused the market to paint the entire business with the private-credit apocalypse brush. And it works both ways: $GLND wasn’t suddenly a critical-minerals bonanza because of a Trump headline. Sometimes the narrative creates the overvaluation. Having the best model or talking to the most experts helps you estimate truth. But truth without an understanding of perception isn’t a trade. You can be a little wrong on intrinsic value and still make a lot of money if you correctly identify that the market’s narrative has overshot reality. The edge today isn’t knowing whether something is worth exactly $37 or $39. It’s understanding why it’s trading at $27 in the first place, whether that perception is wrong, and what makes the gap close…
@DeepSailCapital

Deep Sail Capital on X

Good article about how $CRDO is bringing together multiple layers of connectivity: “The operational angle is equally important. At 1.6T, the issue is not simply moving twice the data of an 800G port. Large AI fabrics can contain enormous numbers of optical links, making intermittent faults and link flaps increasingly consequential to cluster availability and troubleshooting. Credo is therefore positioning telemetry and diagnostics as part of the optical link architecture itself rather than treating observability as a separate management layer.” Having a full suite of connectivity options will give them a big advantage in 1.6T. https://t.co/K7TtgjECoa
@DeepSailCapital

Deep Sail Capital on X

Good article about how $CRDO is being together the multiple layers of connectivity: “The operational angle is equally important. At 1.6T, the issue is not simply moving twice the data of an 800G port. Large AI fabrics can contain enormous numbers of optical links, making intermittent faults and link flaps increasingly consequential to cluster availability and troubleshooting. Credo is therefore positioning telemetry and diagnostics as part of the optical link architecture itself rather than treating observability as a separate management layer.” Having a full suite of connectivity options will give them a big advantage in 1.6T. https://t.co/K7TtgjFadI
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

$CHRW shareholders not buying. Incredible amount of uncertainty in brokerage and how that will look in a few years from litigation impacts on costs (insurance and liability) and AI on margins/take rates. It is a phenomenal deal for $QXO shareholders as they get to exit at cyclical high pricing into incredible uncertainty. (why CHRW down) Also in your multiple assessment above, you need to consider a whole bunch more factors than putting a multiple on a several year out synergy target number (1 chew trading under 20x forward 27' numbers), Ch share count will increase 16%+ (for accretion/dilution scenerios), debt costs will significantly increase (that is stripped out of there) as well as all the severance and integration costs they will incur in the next few years. This deal is quite risky in my opinion. I Also as someone in your shoes knows covering the industry for years, the history of Brokerage acquisitions paying off is quite poor (just see QXO's Coyote acquisition a few years ago)

Investor Letters

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British American Tobacco: Harvest

British American Tobacco’s U.S. reset revives combustibles and rebuilds its nicotine-pouch portfolio after legacy-brand writedowns and Velo…

BTI $120B
Invariant 5 clicks

Practical Parametric Yield

Cerebras’s WSE-3 faces parametric-yield constraints that could restrict supply, making power and clock-speed tradeoffs central to its next…

CBRS $39B
Irrational Analysis 3 clicks
MOH · long

Molina Healthcare

Molina Healthcare faces unprecedented Medicaid managed-care cost inflation and margin compression after its shares declined since October…

MOH $10B
Value Investors Club

TSOH Weekly Roundup (08/28/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup tracks Dick’s Sporting Goods’ Foot Locker setback and Brown-Forman’s internal debate over a potential Pernod Ricard…

DKS $12B
TSOH Investment Research

QXO Inc.

QXO is building a North American construction-products distributor through Beacon, Kodiak and TopBuild, targeting $18.1 billion of combined…

QXO $12B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets

UK Primer: The Equity Revival

UK equities trade at decades-wide discounts to developed-market peers as improving sentiment, capital reform and foreign M&A support a…

ARM $291B
Aurelion Research 2 clicks

Intuit FY2026 Earnings Review

Intuit beat FY2026 estimates despite a $293 million restructuring charge, as management lowered growth ambitions and expanded Mailchimp and…

INTU $79B
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