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Wednesday, September 30, 2026

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The Next Consumer is a Computer

Meta’s Muse illustrates how persistent AI agents shift compute from per-query to per-user, driving heavier GPU, CPU and memory demand.

META $1.8TNVDA $5.5T
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 6 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

Anthropic's biggest near-term threat isn't the S-1 or AI-safety language. It's competition, especially an OpenAI price war. The S-1 is public, and the timing lines up with OpenAI DevDay. My read is that it isn't a coincidence. That's my read, not something either company has said. What surprised me more came out of DevDay: OpenAI is ending its price war. Here's what that means in practice. OpenAI removed the Pro 20x subscription at $200/month and plans to cut usable tokens on that $200 plan by about half. The allowance was also more generous than it looked. Over the past quarter, OpenAI did roughly 2.5 manual usage resets per week. So heavy users didn't only get a big allowance. It got refilled before they hit the wall, over and over, for about three months. That's a price war fought in tokens instead of list prices, and it is expensive to fund. Why it mattered for Anthropic: for heavy users, cheaper tokens beat a better model. Once a model is good enough, what limits you is how much work you can push through it per dollar. A better model you have to ration loses to a good-enough model you can run all day. Anthropic went the other way and raised margin. That's the right posture for an S-1. It's the wrong posture when a competitor is paying for volume. That left Anthropic in a trap going into the IPO: - Match the pricing, and margin thins just when margin is the story you're selling. - Hold the line, and growth slows as heavy users drift to wherever tokens are cheapest. Either way the numbers get worse at the worst possible time. Ending the price war takes that trap off the table for now. Anthropic gets a cleaner tape into the IPO. Why did OpenAI stop after one quarter? I see two reads, and both are mine, not confirmed: 1. The burn. My read is that OpenAI postponed its own IPO because of how much it was burning, and investors pushed it to stop. 2. OpenAI's own later IPO. If it wants to list, its numbers have to look like a business too. One quarter of subsidized tokens is a campaign. A year of it is a problem in your own filing. The second-order point is that in both reads OpenAI stopped because of its own finances. Anthropic didn't win the war. It ended because the side paying for it chose to stop. The playbook still exists and it ran for a full quarter. It can be turned back on. That's the risk that remains. OpenAI restarts it. Or a rival like $SPCX xAI ships a next-gen model and discounts tokens hard to buy share. It's a bit like Uber's cash burn: a well-funded player can keep subsidizing longer than a margin-focused company wants to wait. I don't think that's fully priced in.
@convequity

Convequity on X

$SPCX's Starship reached orbit and delivered cargo. The gigawatts still depend on how often it flies. We have been building the orbital-compute case with three key inputs: kilowatts per ton, tons per flight, and flights per year. 1) Ship 41 reached orbit, about 275 km, and released all 26 Starlink V3 satellites. They are in service. Until this flight Starship had only made short hops and come straight back. 2) The flight was shorter than the plan. One of six upper-stage engines shut down early, and the ship came down at the first health check after deployment, about three hours after launch, instead of staying up for about ten hours. Both stages splashed in the ocean. That was the plan. The ship can take a hard splash and be scrapped. It still delivered a commercial payload. Catching it is how later flights get cheaper. 3) A typical 1 GW site on the ground loses about 370 MW to power conversion, cooling and other overhead that is not the chips. Elon has said terrestrial solar produces about an eighth of the power of the same panel in space: no night, and no atmosphere in the way. In orbit most of that 370 MW overhead goes away as well. Sunlight is continuous, and the heat leaves through radiators. 4) On our Special View assumptions, year 4 is 200 tons at 100 kW per ton, which is 20 MW on one flight. Five hundred flights is 10 GW. Year 5 is still 20 MW a flight. Five thousand flights is 100 GW. The tons and the kilowatts stay the same. The flight count is what changes. Flight 14 showed Starship can reach orbit and deliver cargo. The 10 GW and the 100 GW still depend on how fast SpaceX can fly it again, and at what price.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Someone really should investigate the price action into some of these ancillary biotech stocks.....very reminiscent of a certain Situational Awareness with chip stocks earlier in the year. No one is filing ownership and yet these stocks push higher regardless of macro, or geopolitical news or the overall index moves. Someone with swaps? or options likely at play then using the momentum pf retail and algos to add to the bid. The trade is melting up perfectly to the end of the quarter (not surprised to see them even more aggressively up today than usual to mark performance). We saw this with the chips trade after an unprecedented April-June. But some of the moves with this trade exceed that euphoria (Look at $TXG, $TWST, $SDGR, $RGEN, $GRAL, and a host of other companies)........DO we see the similar move after a giant quarter with a reversal to kick of the next quarter, that was the fate with chips and caused the fund to blow up. Be interesting to see if they learned any lessons, Im guessing not based on recent performance, and if it is a different player the strategy looks the same. These companies need financing and should hit the market bid which is what set off Viacom and was the undoing of Bill Huang in 2021. Lets see, but a basket of these stocks looks interesting at current levels sometime today for gravity/secondaries to come early in Q4
@david_katunaric

Mikro Kap David on X

No one earned this drawdown more than the growth-at-any-price bros paying >100x trailing P/E for $FICO at the 2024 high...with revenue at record levels and net margins having expanded from ~LDD% to ~30% in just six years. If you're even slightly off on any of the ambitious assumptions you must have been making around market position, pricing-driven growth, or the exit multiple, you lose A LOT of money. That said, if there’s a definition of a business worth paying up for, FICO is probably it. Or was... interpreting what the recent changes to the mortgage-scoring landscape mean is no small feat for a tourist like me.

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Microsoft: The Xbox Segment Revamp

Microsoft plans to rebuild Xbox after FY2026 through studio cuts, higher hardware prices, Game Pass growth, exclusive releases and the 2028…

MSFT $3.8T
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Toll roads in the sky

Asia's elevator boom favors maintenance and modernization providers, with Otis deriving nearly 90% of operating profit from after-sales…

OTIS $24B
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Cboe Global Markets INC

Cboe Global Markets trades near $232, with a roughly $24.3 billion market cap, net cash and a 16-17x forward P/E.

CBOE $29B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

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