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Sunday, September 27, 2026

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💥A Bright Line to Bankruptcy💥

U.S. Treasury yields climbed above 5% as markets priced further Fed tightening, while Meta’s AI-agent announcement lifted risk appetite despite OpenAI security incidents.

META $1.9T
PETITION 3 clicks

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NVIDIA’s Feynman: CPO Inside, OCS Outside According to supply-chain sources, $NVDA’s 2028 Feynman architecture is planning a dual-layer optical design around the NVL576 rack. An inner layer of Co-Packaged Optics will handle high-density, short-reach connections within and between racks. An outer layer of Optical Circuit Switching will manage larger-scale cluster connectivity, supporting flexible topologies at the 100,000-GPU level. In this framing, CPO and OCS are treated as complements rather than substitutes. CPO addresses density and power at short reach; OCS provides flexibility at longer distances. NVIDIA’s near-term path appears to favour mature MEMS switches to secure delivery schedules, with silicon photonics as the longer-term option once insertion loss improves. Higher insertion loss in SiPh currently requires more optical amplification, adding power, noise and cost — which is why MEMS remains the lower-risk choice for large deployments in the near term. $GOOGL’s earlier move into silicon photonics for inference is expected to help mature the supply chain, potentially making it easier for NVIDIA to follow later. Huawei, Oracle and others are also advancing along related paths.
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Convequity on X

Photonics Pt.4: OCS Roadmaps Are Splitting Convequity’s latest note examines how Optical Circuit Switching is diverging by workload. High-radix MEMS remains the practical choice for scale-out and training clusters that prioritise scheduled reconfiguration. Lower-latency silicon photonics is being pushed into the scale-up layer for inference, where millisecond switching is no longer acceptable. $GOOGL's V8i architecture is the clearest example. It moves OCS down into the scale-up domain for the first time and pairs it with 2.4T Coherent Lite modules that dramatically reduce fiber and port consumption. The combination is designed to close Google’s main networking gap versus NVIDIA. $NVDA's Feynman (2028) appears to be taking a dual approach: CPO for dense short-reach connections and OCS for larger cluster-level scale-out. Near-term deployments will likely rely on mature MEMS, with silicon photonics as the longer-term path once insertion loss improves. The broader OCS market is projected to grow from ~$400M in 2025 to over $2.5B by 2029 (58% CAGR). Silicon photonics offers a relatively open competitive field compared with MEMS, where incumbents hold stronger positions. We also re-examine CPO’s path forward and assess microLED as a more radical parallel alternative — one that inverts the industry’s “fewer, faster lanes” assumption and is physically confined to short-reach scale-up links. Full Part 4 is now live. Link in the comments.

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Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $29B
Hated Moats 8 clicks

The Agents Revolt

Meta’s Muse reached 2.8 million downloads in two weeks, using AI agents to automate insurance shopping and erode customer inertia that…

META $1.9T
Net Interest 7 clicks
THC · long

Tenet Healthcare CORP

Tenet Healthcare generates roughly two-thirds of profits from hospitals and one-third from ambulatory surgery centers.

THC $21B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

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