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Friday, September 25, 2026

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@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

I've been short $META for a while as I mentioned in previous posts. I'm fully aware that $META has been benefitting in continued shift of ad dollars away from $GOOG (I'm also short $GOOG) as we transition away from the SEO/SEM world to AEO/GEO. However, nothing can mess up a good fundamental story like poor capital allocation and Zuck and co. have demonstrated time and time again that they're willing to pull defeat from the jaws of victory. This latest effort to go and compete with Kalshi, polymarket, and even the traditional broker/dealers to get into betting markets is just another example. Betting markets doesn't represent the existential risk to the biz like AI does, why even consider getting into this now? Based on chatter about their upcoming AI model updates, it seems CAPEX at $META is poised to go way up, yet again. Will the street like that? I guess if their latest model is Mythos quality or better, maybe it will be tolerated. Maybe, but probably not. What is it about Zuck that he feels the need to be all things to all people? Does he not understand the strengths of his own business or is he worried about the duration of those strengths? Maybe it's just ultimate hubris. Either way, at some point soon he probably pulls the reigns back as the market continues to penalize $META for the absurdities of their capital incineration.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$FIS I appreciate the ai narrative and stable coins narrative for broad payment sector names...but $FIS at current prices seems like a good Depp value opportunity. In general the rubber band seems very far stretched between the momentum names in semi capX and the ai "losers" and mega cap tech. Whether its sell the news on $MU earnings, end of quarter rebalancing etc, seems we are on the cusp of a rotation. (even if its only short lasting, should be quite volatile as we say several weeks ago). [going long Amzn, select software, fis, select med tech to play that versus short the SOXX, some derivative names like $CAT]
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

Question for anyone buying $MU or $SNDK or the like at these levels......how long can these stocks continue to be financed by large tech without large stocks going up in tandem? At some point if you don't buy $AMZN etc alongside $MU the math game, and incentive for large cap tech to continue to finance MU will change.....this part of the dispersion trade not only is difficult to comprehend it actually creates negative fundamentals for the semi complex if it continues to stretch. Fears of equity dilution rightfully sidelines large cap tech buying, but only a matter of time it bleeds into actual CapX if the currency to support spending stops supporting the circular spending
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Odd two day movement in $KMX after earnings... Agree with the day 1 action - a stock that came into the report on a blistering run, and while the co. reported "improved" results, there are significant challenges still in front of them. Most of the improvement is driven by a dramatic lowering of sale prices to increase sales (gross profit dollars still lower). And that is a lever that will likely remain a permanence as they try and respond to efforts from $CVNA and others. I will credit them on lowering expenses as well, likely low hanging fruit and moves to reduce ("automate") reconditioning again following the caravan playbook of leaving cars closer to as returned. issues on loans remains in a market that is significantly challenged and does not appear on the verge of improving any time soon. The cha cha move Thursday and Friday would argue sets up a better short opportunity in the name as you have removed the IV from earnings to now look out the next few months on put/spreads looking for a cooling off. *even sell side numbers I put little stock in almost all are below, and most significantly from the current price (one could argue thats bullish to rerate but I see this more like Birk that is behaving more like a squeeze than actual fundamentals, hence the wide divergence)

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Research Roundup Vol. LIII

Micron’s customer agreements, Analog Devices’ acquisitions, Ondas’ GATE deal and Baker Hughes’ power systems position them for AI…

MU $1.2TADI $203B
Monte Independent Investment Research 4 clicks
MA · long

Mastercard

Mastercard trades near $495, about 18% below its $602 52-week high, framing a favorable long risk-reward case.

MA $495B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

CoreWeave, Inc (CRWV)

CoreWeave funds GPU data-center expansion with debt backed by $104 billion in contracted revenue, while GPU cloud rentals generate roughly…

CRWV $49B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 10 clicks

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