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Thursday, September 17, 2026

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Power Semiconductors: The Follow-Up

STMicroelectronics, Navitas and Wolfspeed offer contrasting power-semiconductor cases tied to NVIDIA’s 800V AI data-center architecture, spanning an incumbent leader, a speculative…

STM $47BNVTS $2.9B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 1 click

From X

@RagingVentures

Raging Capital Ventures on X

But if returns on capital are declining for everyone, the choice is whether to eat or to be eaten? $T is willing to subsidize fiber as a loss leader to protect their wireless margins. $CHTR / $CMCSA are likewise willing to give away wireless to protect their broadband margins… which comes back to the question: which is stickier, your phone or broadband line? I think $CMCSA works because of the spin unlock and sheer strength of their balance sheet. $CHTR is a very long dated call option with more risk, but much more upside if broadband losses attenuate and/or they allocate capital intelligently (although $CHTR’s balance sheet is more levered, there is tremendous optionality in its duration, cost and structure).
@blondesnmoney

Cluseau Investments on X

Disclaimer: I have sold this position and have no view on the valuation or future prospects My craziest OTC adventure this year was discovering a single-asset refinery that sells Jet Fuel to the US Military. It sounds kinda crazy, but it's the exact type of ridiculous setup funny enough to look into. In July, refining crack spreads were blowing out, and nearly every refiner $PBF, $PARR, $VLO, $PSX were steamrolling. I wanted some exposure, but I felt sheepish chasing names that were already tearing it up. I started looking at smaller refiners, but nearly everyone was in the 3x - 5x forward earnings range, not expensive, but for a cyclical, also not really that cheap. It turns out that, aside from the megacap refiners and $PARR, there's only one other US listed microcap refiner, Blue Dolphin Energy $BDCO. The stock is heavily insider owned, and at the time, was trading at just over 4x Q1 earnings ($0.99). Crack spreads are publicly viewable, and other refiners were demolishing estimates - $PARR came in at $11 in Q2, triple Q1, so it didn't take too much math to realize BDCO's Q2 was gonna be strong given jet fuel prices, and that the stock was potentially trading under 1x forward earnings. Of course, it's an OTC name with limited liquidity so you can't realize size it up, but how often do you get a chance to buy someone who supplies jet fuel to the Department of Defense under 1x annualized earnings? It was almost comedic, the story was funny enough to swallow the OTC stigma and just pick up a little bit up. About a week later, Q2 results came in at $1.19 (putting 1H earnings at ($2.18), and the market suddenly realized a stock trading at $4 on $2.18 of two quarter's EPS was just too cheap. The stock hit $18 today - I've been trimming since entry and am finally out. It was a tiny position, but I continue to find it ridiculous that these OTC setups exist. With a small amount of capital and a love for reading filings, you can probably find a slew of OTC names that are actually decently profitable that are simply too small for larger investors to take a stab at. I have no position in BDCO and have no opinion on it, $4 and $18 are totally different prices, but the fact this setup existed and somehow flew under the radar until earnings is pretty entertaining.

Investor Letters

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Vizsla Silver (VZLA)

Vizsla Silver's Panuco project in Sinaloa remains shut after nine workers were found dead, delaying construction of a fully funded 17.4 Moz…

VZLA $2B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 1 click

A2Gold: Research Note

A2Gold's McIntosh drilling found 0.23 g/t gold over 65.5m, 370m southwest of the existing resource, and extended mineralization 86m…

KGC $34B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks
GPK · long

Graphic Packaging Holding CO

Graphic Packaging (GPK) is pitched as a long with $22 fair value, implying roughly 100% upside, based on its low-cost paper-based packaging…

GPK $2.8B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

[VRSK] Verisk has standards

Verisk’s exit from healthcare, financial-services and energy data restored a pure-play insurance analytics model, but D.E.

VRSK $22B
scuttleblurb 1 click

Brown & Brown

Brown & Brown compounded revenue 14.4% annually since 1998 through more than 650 acquisitions, capped by its nearly $10 billion Accession…

BRO $22B
Eagle Point Capital

When the Ducks are Quacking

Ford’s 1956 IPO sold 10.2 million shares at $63 each after Goldman Sachs helped resolve the Ford Foundation’s voting-rights problem.

F $53B
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