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Wednesday, September 16, 2026

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@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

In the case of $GOOG, Adwords, which in my view is the greatest business model ever created is now being replaced by something quite different and considerably worse. In the case of $META, there's a long list. I don't share your view of the caliber of that business even while I recognize the considerable ad share gains they continue to get. The toxicity of the platform matters greatly if you're thinking of this business in any kind of longer term context.
@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

I've been short $META for a while as I mentioned in previous posts. I'm fully aware that $META has been benefitting in continued shift of ad dollars away from $GOOG (I'm also short $GOOG) as we transition away from the SEO/SEM world to AEO/GEO. However, nothing can mess up a good fundamental story like poor capital allocation and Zuck and co. have demonstrated time and time again that they're willing to pull defeat from the jaws of victory. This latest effort to go and compete with Kalshi, polymarket, and even the traditional broker/dealers to get into betting markets is just another example. Betting markets doesn't represent the existential risk to the biz like AI does, why even consider getting into this now? Based on chatter about their upcoming AI model updates, it seems CAPEX at $META is poised to go way up, yet again. Will the street like that? I guess if their latest model is Mythos quality or better, maybe it will be tolerated. Maybe, but probably not. What is it about Zuck that he feels the need to be all things to all people? Does he not understand the strengths of his own business or is he worried about the duration of those strengths? Maybe it's just ultimate hubris. Either way, at some point soon he probably pulls the reigns back as the market continues to penalize $META for the absurdities of their capital incineration.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$FIS I appreciate the ai narrative and stable coins narrative for broad payment sector names...but $FIS at current prices seems like a good Depp value opportunity. In general the rubber band seems very far stretched between the momentum names in semi capX and the ai "losers" and mega cap tech. Whether its sell the news on $MU earnings, end of quarter rebalancing etc, seems we are on the cusp of a rotation. (even if its only short lasting, should be quite volatile as we say several weeks ago). [going long Amzn, select software, fis, select med tech to play that versus short the SOXX, some derivative names like $CAT]
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Question for anyone buying $MU or $SNDK or the like at these levels......how long can these stocks continue to be financed by large tech without large stocks going up in tandem? At some point if you don't buy $AMZN etc alongside $MU the math game, and incentive for large cap tech to continue to finance MU will change.....this part of the dispersion trade not only is difficult to comprehend it actually creates negative fundamentals for the semi complex if it continues to stretch. Fears of equity dilution rightfully sidelines large cap tech buying, but only a matter of time it bleeds into actual CapX if the currency to support spending stops supporting the circular spending

Investor Letters

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Adobe 3Q26 Update

Adobe’s fiscal 3Q26 revenue grew 13%, while ARR growth slowed to 9.3% excluding Semrush.

ADBE $93B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks
ZM · long

Zoom Communications INC

Zoom Communications (ZM) is presented as a long investment idea.

ZM $27B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Owning the Seven PM Slot

Netflix is using AI visual effects and dubbing to cut production costs, expand global distribution and reinforce its recommendation-driven…

NFLX $511B
Bearhold Research 1 click

Lululemon: The 15-Minute Thesis

Lululemon’s North American sales, margins and legging demand are falling as Alo and Vuori gain share, leaving its brand moat and depressed…

LULU $11B
Hated Moats 2 clicks

The Five Deals That Made Apollo

Apollo Global Management’s five defining deals, from Executive Life to Intel, built a $1 trillion asset manager spanning insurance and…

APO $73B
Net Interest 1 click

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