Wednesday, September 2, 2026

A Busted Businesses or a Cyclical Bottom?

Two U.S. protein-snacking companies lost $6 billion in market value as impairments, inventory growth and margin pressure test whether the category has reached a cyclical bottom.

SMPL $1BBRBR $1.2B

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Sep 1 EVC $782M

EVC Update

Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 22 clicks

From X

@natstewart5 41h ago 1 click

Nat Stewart on X

$GSM Ferroglobe up today on announcement of a European review of antidumping measures on Chinese silicon metal Has been in a volatile trading range for years, but potential bull points appear be stacking up. (I own long dated calls, watchlist stock)

@pennycheck 41h ago 1 click

⚽️📡 on X

$NTSK strong double beat and double raise Here are some lines on the call that stood out to me https://t.co/7HeDkbVHHp

@BrokenMoats 43h ago 2 clicks

Broken Moats on X

$SNOW conference call is the bear case for application software companies. Their data infrastructure combined with coco and cowork on top increasingly makes SNOW a key player in data migrations, and data consolidation for their customers and a key hub to switch between models means SNOW has a seat at the table to be one of the most important and internal pieces of an AI stack....and as they become the permissions data holder with governance and api/mpc to internal and external partners, they can actually become the system of record across applications. This would allow you to use tools like cocoa inside to contextualize in human language what you want built, or even what data/answers you want and how you want that visualized.... Compare this to a Salesforce that is essentially becoming a database company silo to their specific domain by opening up their data to Claude to be the work engine. Eventually companies will increasingly want to stop interfacing with multiple applications to query and want to UI and query across a singular interface (originally thought to be an LLM like Claude, but with specific training and different inference costs / intelligence across models its more like the player presiding over the biggest pool of company data (snowflake, databricks) could become that central payer - less model lock, more flexibly, and central access point for models, data, queries and ui across functions. May not relegate a salesforce obsolete but significantly destroys their value when people access from Snow or even from an LLM like Claude were they lose the ui interface, and behavioral association and slight shared/learned network effects and become a database. Increases switching costs overtime and certainly destroys pricing (agent force consumption model is a step in the modern pricing setup, but start based models are dead, its not an if for most applications without highly defensible and proprietary data) $PEGA, $APPN, $PATH, $CRM, $PAYC are first pass through som of the more exposed names

@Mike10947310 43h ago 3 clicks

Mike on X

During the Iran dip initially there was a lot of behind the scenes AI progress. And so when there was finally relief — in the form of the initial detente -> MOU — things totally ripped. I feel like with these insane $NVDA and $AVGO guides we are almost in this spot again. Hedge funds have delevered, momo has been historically crushed, Warsh has said a lot of hawkish things, and the next FOMC the market expects a hike. Obviously the big overhang is yields. But it feels to me like for all the discussion of guidance/rates/the yield curve… really the bond market just wants the war to end or at least be paused. I am not so sure that the US has no power to at least have things significantly deescalate when it wants (maybe into midterms). It’s like, we can “lose” a war, but Iran can still recognize that with time its leverage will decrease, its economy will be destroyed further… like it seems a bit naive just to think that because the war is going badly, Iran has no desire to see it wind down. This latest tit for tat for example hasn’t been that crazy. So IF you think that we get some sort of detente, which is really what I think yields need — are we not kind of a coiled spring here and running back a similar setup to when things started ripping?

@ActAccordingly 45h ago 2 clicks

PAA Research on X

$ATD (think Circle K) said on its earnings call that its revenues from energy drinks are now twice that of carbonated sodas (albeit at lower margin). $ATD comped 1.7% on SSS of which a big portion was driven by double digit growth in energy drinks. I look at the charts of $CELH and $MNST and wonder how long the c-store players can count on continued growth in this category. It's energy drinks and Zyn... $CASY $MUSA

@pennycheck 46h ago 1 click

⚽️📡 on X

$NTSK absolutely smash print NNARR bounced to $54M + rev growth re-accelerated steller

@natstewart5 47h ago 1 click

Nat Stewart on X

@HiddenGemsInves $CHCI ° Asset light, high ROIC asset manager ° Track record of revenue, FCF growth, clear strategy ° ~30% owned by Dwight Shar, founder/former CEO of $NVR ° move into data center development is a potential grand slam - a cheap call option