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Monday, August 31, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

still feel the rotation from July-current is more about a short squeeze (the opposite end of the Situational Awareness portfolio) and the dispersion of having to unwind the long semi trade portion. But that rubber band is similarly stretched as it was the opposite direction at the end of June. Still feel its in the process of reversing (even the morning action today looks like a top could set in?) $RNG, $IT, $APPN, $TGT, $EXPE, $FDS, $PAYC, $ELF, $MET, $MFC, $GDDY, $V, and many more that were AI losers that have had incredible runs in the past 4-6 weeks seem like good ways to be short against a snap back to AI or a more seasonal unwind from policy risk trying to control rates, midterm/fall seasonal factors, etc. Especially with SaaS earnings taking the stage later this week and next (overshadowed by $NVDA on Wednesday)
@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

Yes, you're touching on some of the issues that $Z/$ZG faces in the residential real estate landscape. There are reasons that the stock trades at 8-9x FY27 consensus EBITDA even though the company continues to grow revenues at a mid-teens clip YOY organically while generating huge FCF. We've written HUNDREDS of pages on these issues so this is not the right forum to litigate the relative merits of any of these concerns. Zillow has a lot of organic initiatives that should sustain growth for the next few years. From all my work, the commission structure of the industry is not changing much right now, but of course that seems inevitable at some point. If you really drill down to what $Z/$ZG is doing strategically it's all about becoming more deeply integrated into the transaction. Follow-up Boss was the most important acquisition the company ever made IMO. You don't need to see around corners here, but you have to look through the noise to see what the company's doing.
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

The bigger issue I think is if changes in commission structures ongoing in real estate changes Zillows position in the industry and if they need to overhaul their model on the housing side? ZG running straight into https://t.co/xkzar3nuEl with success to increase supply and they'll both likely end up sharing that market (more a negative against csgp as they have the larger share in the rental space currently) but I think they end up shrinking that pie with their competitive attacks against each other. The compass and regional MLS provider lawsuit on exclusives, supply I think is the bigger case hanging over $ZG currently because thats one of the few threats to their dominance in mindhare in shopping/looking at homes online and their ad revenues there
@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

$Z/$ZG announces it reached a resolution with the FTC on the commission's anti-trust allegations related to the #zillow/#redfin rentals syndication deal. The partnership will continue going forward but $RKT/Redfin will be required to buildout its own rentals listings syndication platform and Zillow will waive any non-competes. My sense is that $RKT/#Redfin are not hugely interested in the rentals space at this time and Zillow's market share gains will continue at a robust clip. This is a positive for $Z/$ZG and eliminates another litigation overhang. We estimate the size of the rental property advertising landscape at $9-$10B annually. One has to wonder where this lawsuit came from given that it involved a $100MM deal in a massive marketplace. $CSGP?

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