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Saturday, August 29, 2026

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@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

Weird world to watch $RNG as the new memory stock. How much longer we think the squeeze in all things people were short 6 weeks ago lasts....getting pretty crazy to watch $WDAY climbing to $185. Doomsday at the lows, but not totally off base to reset off true profitability after years of sbc adjusted multiples. But the risks still remain, that structurally the barrier to generating code is lower, competition will increase as a result. And while there are advantages to certain players installed bases and data the moats have eroded to various degrees. Does anyone actually believe we need more phones, and more base level contact services in the future ($RNG) I doubt so. Its a pretty impressive counter trend, squeeze move against a clear trend (the reversal of May and June) but if you've benefited here from these rebounds I think you would be crazy to not only book profits but not find short exposure in this area, many of these companies even if they surrvive and can pivot to being ai beneficiary will go through some tough times in the coming few years as the prices decline for models and compute access
@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

I still own $AIRS and think it will work. The company is in a much better financial and operational position than it was a year ago. Heading into the quarter, I thought they would post 3-5% same center comps, instead we got a 1% and they stated June/July was "soft". Guidance came down $1.0-$1.5MM for EBITDA, probably not the stuff (-40%+) declines are made of, but you have a ton of fast money and retail here. Brutal. However, the company spent a fair amount on top of the funnel brand marketing the past 3-6 months, the returns on that spend are longer tail in nature. Leverage is <2.0x now. They keep adding to the "menu" for procedures, which should drive significant improvements in site utilization and incremental margins that could approach 40-50%. This business has the potential to reach 150-200 units at 20-25% EBITDA margins. That would represent $1.0B in topline and $200MM+ of EBITDA. Obviously that doesn't happen anytime soon, but they can get back to de novo site expansion of 2-4 units a year starting in 2027 to get the growth flywheel going. The industry remains incredibly fragmented and the GLP-1 tailwinds for aesthetics are quite real. It's kind of remarkable the stock trades like this given the size of the float, which is probably only 12-13MM shares. Hopefully we'll see some insider buying in the coming days. At these levels, this would be an attractive asset for quite a few potential buyers IMO.

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The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)

Verra Mobility renewed Hertz tolling management for five years. AutoKinex lets rental customers buy tolling, fuel and protection products…

VRRM $447M
The Oak Bloke 6 clicks
CNH · long

Cnh Industrial NV

CNH Industrial, the No. 2 global agricultural-equipment OEM, is pitched long at about $10 per share.

CNH $15B
Value Investors Club 1 click

NCLH or her grandma Saga?

Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…

NCLH $7B
The Oak Bloke 13 clicks

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