Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.
(Late) Q2'25 Update New: $META, $STN.TO, $FTT.TO, $CVG.TO, $GDI.TO, $VCI.V, $IOT.V Sold: $KNSL, $CJT.TO, $RPI.UN, $MRD.TO, $HMM.A, $FORA.TO, $THNC.TO, $BRM.V Q2: 6.6% vs 10.6% for SPX ITD (Jan '21): +165% vs +68% Fairly happy with how the portfolio is positioned 👇 https://t.co/FPQbbegoEQ
$INGM Massive cyber & ransomware attack. All systems over the weekend. Still can’t fulfill orders after 4 days. Customers moving to competitors (as reported on Reddit). Likely permanent damage & customer losses. Ransomware payment due. Compounded by a major IT upgrade now needed. https://t.co/kQFbwFvcLA
Sponsor Bain (50% shareholder) will likely be looking to unload shares as we approach the lock-up expiration date later this summer. $KMTS could be a zero.
$KMTS Recent IPO. Makes $20k bras w defib (not a joke). Impractical product w very low efficacy (per clinical trials). Insurance won’t cover. Burning cash, no valuation support. Zoll has 80% share, $KMTS distant #2. 6/1 FDA approved a much better alternative by Element Sciences.
$PRIM $500M new project broke ground. Not deep on the name but this is a pretty massive program for $PRIM and does not appear anyone noticed. "430-megawatt development from Arevon Energy, an offshoot of utility and energy contractor Primoris Services Corp" https://t.co/1egNflZ1X8
$PLUS Accelerating decline: Networking -37% (largest category), Product sales -18%, zero margin/ low quality Professional services now 15% of sales. Cut FY2026 top and bottom-line guide by 7% w further cuts almost certain to come. Trading at 14x 2026 guidance vs peers at 6-8x.
$ACA Levered roll-up (4x levered) hodgepodge of low-quality cap intensive commodity businesses w struggling end-markets (sub-scale aggregates, building products, ag). Negative organic growth w unrealistic guidance. Forced to sell an asset to avoid covenant breach. 30x P/E
$DAKT Just won the massive jumbotron project for the new Titans stadium. Estimated to be $180M. Will be the largest set of displays in the NFL. Bills, Browns stadiums to be announced soon. Wouldn’t be surprised if Mitsubishi acquires them given interest in the category.
Stripe’s net revenue rose 41% in 1H 2026 versus Adyen’s 21% FX-adjusted growth, fueled by AI-native startups and acquisitions including…
AVITA Medical’s more predictable reimbursement, RECELL GO rollout and PermeaDerm economics support adoption, with cash flow breakeven…
Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…
Instacart’s larger grocery baskets create disproportionately better delivery economics than DoorDash’s, making half the basket size worth…
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
Bank of America’s BAC.PR.B yields just over 6% near par, while discounted lower-coupon series such as BAC.PR.P offer better value despite…
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
Tempus AI's diagnostics and data businesses grew Q2 2026 revenue 19.4% year over year, with FDA approvals, expanded tests and pricing aimed…
Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…
RGLD · long Royal Gold, a $19 billion precious-metals royalty and streaming company, benefits from mine production without operating mines directly.
Rocket Lab generated $234 million in Q2 revenue and built a $2.36 billion backlog, with Neutron priced at $50 million to $55 million before…
Walmart says Medicare Maximum Fair Price rules will cut FY27 US comps by 125 basis points, while pharmacy margins and prescription volumes…
Vistance Networks trades at $11 after a $5 special distribution, with a DOCSIS 4.0 upgrade cycle, cash reserves and a $160 million tax…
Instacart’s per-order unit economics provide a benchmark for assessing DoorDash’s LTM profitability and operating model.
Airbnb shares have risen about 50% since October 2025, prompting a revised 2026 model and return assumptions at the current price.
AppLovin’s AXON 2.0 self-serve rollout, e-commerce onboarding and Connected TV expansion aim to revive growth after Q2 2026 revenue and…
Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…
IREN awarded each co-CEO roughly 9 million RSUs, about 2.5% of shares and $400 million, in exchange for no further equity grants until…
Nubank's 140 million customers, 20% efficiency ratio and 30% ROE frame whether its high-teens P/E reflects a scalable fintech or a maturing…
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