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Tuesday, October 20, 2026· 11104 stock ideas· 218 writers·
20,682 views· 9,767 clicks

Is Microsoft Over-Earning on OpenAI?

Microsoft booked $24.1 billion from OpenAI in FY2026, nearly a quarter of Azure revenue, raising questions over finite, high-margin contributions to earnings growth.

MSFT $4T
MBI Deep Dives 2 clicks

From X

@AsifSuria 1 click

Asif Suria on X

Mary Barra continues to show that she is the GOAT of the automotive industry. Despite the big pullback in $GM stock today, over the last year: Ford is essentially flat Rivian $RIVN is down 5% Tesla $TSLA is down 16% Stellantis is down a whopping 60% GM is up more than 30% Pulling back the curtain 10 years, Ford generated no returns (not taking dividends into account) and Stellantis lost a third of its value. GM is up 139% over the last 10 years. Barra took on the role of CEO in January 2014 after being with the company since 1980. Obviously the ten year return pales in comparison to the returns of Tesla or the NASDAQ over that time but she has continued to do a great job in a challenging industry that has undergone tremendous change since Tesla transformed the landscape.
@ParadisLabs

Paradis on X

Bernstein on $LITE: Recent drawdowns are due to softer AI lab revenues, $CRWV financing, and macro overhangs. Not weaker infra demand. Bernstein say that the real debate is whether 2028 CPO bandwidth math holds, with bandwidth scale-up implying a 6-7x opportunity at comparable pricing. - $NVDA Vera Rubin NVL72 has 216 TB/s of NVLink vs 32.4 TB/s of scale-out. - At ~$0.44/Gbps for 3.2T CPO vs ~$0.48/Gbps for 1.6T pluggables, scale-up CPO works out to ~6x today’s scale-out pluggable market - So even ~low penetration by 2028 is material. But...Bernstein caveat this with the current favorable pricing environment has been bolstered by InP supply bottlenecks. Which circles back to the bear thesis that as technologies that do not rely on InP expand (VCSELs / Micro LEDs), S/D dynamics could move = margin impact? Feels like it's too early to tell what the sector's end-game is though, especially with continuous comments from $LITE's CEO that they have uber long-term visibility over demand.

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Copper Fox Metals: Research Flash

Copper Fox’s C$9.1 million Schaft Creek program advances metallurgical, tailings, water and road studies toward a pre-feasibility study,…

TECK $31B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 1 click
IQV · long

Iqvia Holdings INC

IQVIA runs drug trials and gets paid regardless of whether drugs pass, while trading at a COVID-low multiple with potential AI benefits.

IQV $45B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Visa Inc update

Visa and Mastercard meet 15% five-year IRR targets at 25x and 26x 2026 earnings, while American Express needs a wider margin for…

V $750BMA $541B
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