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WD #360: New Trade, Recent Market Action, Brazil/Inter Update

Atlassian is sold after a 130% gain, while iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF is added following the market plunge; the update also assesses the AI-stock selloff and CoreWeave’s collapse.

TEAM $52B

Ian’s Insider Corner 55m ago 2 clicks

5h ago NOC $68B

Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Preview - Accumulate Rating, Zones And Stop Inside

Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

7h ago APP $88B

AppLovin Deep Dive

Speedwell Memos 13 clicks

From X

@red_dog_capital Sep 30

Red Dog Capital on X

$LOGC victory lap...2x in ~15 mo. More room to run as they continue to buy highly-moated assets w/pricing power and pay no tax for decades due to the NOLs. 10+ year compounder. David Abrams agrees. Stock will probably fade some post the rights ($9 rights). ~25x '27 FCF today

@BrokenMoats Sep 30

Broken Moats on X

Someone really should investigate the price action into some of these ancillary biotech stocks.....very reminiscent of a certain Situational Awareness with chip stocks earlier in the year. No one is filing ownership and yet these stocks push higher regardless of macro, or geopolitical news or the overall index moves. Someone with swaps? or options likely at play then using the momentum pf retail and algos to add to the bid. The trade is melting up perfectly to the end of the quarter (not surprised to see them even more aggressively up today than usual to mark performance). We saw this with the chips trade after an unprecedented April-June. But some of the moves with this trade exceed that euphoria (Look at $TXG, $TWST, $SDGR, $RGEN, $GRAL, and a host of other companies)........DO we see the similar move after a giant quarter with a reversal to kick of the next quarter, that was the fate with chips and caused the fund to blow up. Be interesting to see if they learned any lessons, Im guessing not based on recent performance, and if it is a different player the strategy looks the same. These companies need financing and should hit the market bid which is what set off Viacom and was the undoing of Bill Huang in 2021. Lets see, but a basket of these stocks looks interesting at current levels sometime today for gravity/secondaries to come early in Q4

@leevalueroach Sep 30 4 clicks

Lee Roach on X

Institutional money is now coming to the card market. How much cards do you think Coinbase and all of the institutional pigs need to buy to create this demand? There is a reason why Ryan Cohen is buying $GME in the open market in size. Card prices about to go limit up. https://t.co/4QOjJa96Wc

@leevalueroach Sep 30

Lee Roach on X

@InsiderHawk Why is $SYK selling off?

@david_katunaric Sep 30

Mikro Kap David on X

No one earned this drawdown more than the growth-at-any-price bros paying >100x trailing P/E for $FICO at the 2024 high...with revenue at record levels and net margins having expanded from ~LDD% to ~30% in just six years. If you're even slightly off on any of the ambitious assumptions you must have been making around market position, pricing-driven growth, or the exit multiple, you lose A LOT of money. That said, if there’s a definition of a business worth paying up for, FICO is probably it. Or was... interpreting what the recent changes to the mortgage-scoring landscape mean is no small feat for a tourist like me.

@TimyanBankAlert Sep 30

Timyan Bank Alert on X

$CBNK merging into $PEBO https://t.co/PBhnl65UhD

@InvestSpecial Sep 30

Dalius - Special Sits on X

$GLND is absolutely ripping, now at 4.5. I guess it’s a good thing I don’t short small/microcaps. This would’ve been very painful. https://t.co/KYQBfG9zGK

@KEDM_COM Sep 30

KEDM.com on X

TIM Brazil $TIMS3.BZ / $TIMB will be buying back ~55m shares over the next 18 months. Not a huge buyback (2.3% of s/o), but this one is notable because s/o have been roughly stable since, what, 2014? Also, the stock is down 40% from ATH over the past few months while TIM keeps growing. We saw something very similar in 2024 (the price action, not the buyback), with the shares moving +100% the following year.

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