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Tuesday, October 20, 2026· 10519 stock ideas· 220 writers·
20,549 views· 9,622 clicks

Heico Corporation

HEICO sells FAA-approved aircraft replacement parts at 30% to 50% discounts to OEMs, gaining customers as restrictive aftermarket contracts expire.

HEI $43B
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From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

Networking, not compute, now decides custom AI chip wins, and in our view that is Broadcom's ($AVGO) edge. As GPUs become more like specialized AI processors, matrix compute looks much the same everywhere. At 224G high-speed chip connections (SerDes), only Nvidia ($NVDA) and Broadcom can do it. If you want a custom chip, you go to Broadcom. That is why we avoid Marvell ($MRVL). A cheaper design partner is not necessarily cheaper overall: weaker connections and networking compound costs after deployment, resulting in higher total system costs. The bottleneck is moving from the switch to the optics. Lasers and optical signal-processing chips are short, and Broadcom can bundle priority optical supply with its custom chips, even for customers running Nvidia GPUs. Nvidia's lack of optical know-how is becoming its biggest disadvantage, and we expect Broadcom to take more share from it for years to come.
@convequity 2 clicks

Convequity on X

$CRWV 5-year CDS hit a record ~1,195bp on 15 Oct and the whole neocloud group sold off with it. Our ABBX tracker suggests the market is pricing contagion into the wrong names. The balance sheet first. At 30 June CoreWeave had $35.6B of debt against $5.5B of cash, and its ~$33B market cap now sits below its debt. $4.4B falls due in the rest of 2026 and $6.2B in 2027, mostly loan amortisation; no bond matures before 2030. Its 9.625% notes sold at par in June now yield ~14.9%. Add $16.3B of lease liabilities and $35.5B of leases not yet started. CoreWeave's Q2 operating cash flow: Net loss: −$0.63B + Depreciation & amortisation: +$1.39B + Stock-based comp: +$0.17B + Other non-cash items: +$0.28B − Working capital (payables, receivables, prepaids): −$1.32B + Customer prepayments: +$0.79B = Operating cash flow: $0.68B The core business makes cash, but working capital ate it. Without the prepayments OCF was −$0.11B. That OCF is already after ~$0.44B of cash interest, equal to 65% of it, and capex ran 9.5x OCF. Funding is where the group splits. CoreWeave builds with borrowed money: GPU-backed loans, 8.5–9.75% bonds and vendor credit, with ~$9.8B of H1 equipment supplier-financed outside the cash-flow statement. Prepayments covered 12% of its Q2 capex. $NBIS builds with convertibles (~$9B this year) and prepayments that covered 21% of Q2 capex; at 30 June it held $8.5B of debt against $8.0B of cash. $IREN builds with equity, a $3B 1% convertible and prepayments that covered 87% of its latest quarter's capex; net debt is ~$1.7B and cash interest equalled ~1% of OCF. The exposure that matters is its landlords. CoreWeave is ~77% of $CORZ revenue, the tenant at Galaxy's Helios campus and leases 400MW from $APLD. Yet since 2 Oct Core Scientific is down 17%, while Microsoft-anchored IREN is down 34% and Nebius 30%. Our view: the risk is CoreWeave's debt-funded build, not the neocloud model. If CoreWeave stumbles, the hit lands on the landlords that depend on its rent. Nebius and IREN share the model, not the funding.
@ParadisLabs

Paradis on X

For AI/Semis stocks, it feels like every earnings season becomes signficantly more important than the last. This time is the same, but for different reasons which has led to market chopiness: - Macro instability (Iran, oil, yields, inflation) - Midterms - $CRWV credit stress - AI ROI concerns via frontier lab ARR's (& pending hyperscaler earnings on top). Today: $SPCX Wed: $META, $TXN, $LRCX Thu: $BE, $WDC, $NOK Let's see if good EPS will be enough to turnaround sentiment.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Between July 10 and August 20, Boost Run’s $BRUN float more than tripled, a problem the larger GPU clouds didn’t have. When I wrote my June 3 update, its float was only ~17.5M shares (12.65M public shares plus 10% of insider and sponsor shares that were never locked up). In my May 17 post, I expected most insider and sponsor shares to stay locked up until mid-November, based on an S-4 (merger filing) sentence that read as if only 10% could be released early. But the July 2 S-1 (its resale registration filing) shows the lockup ended for all of those shares once the stock closed at or above $12.00 on 20 of 30 trading days after the closing, which by my count happened on June 8, 2026. The resale registration for 58.7M shares then went effective on July 10, and after $BRUN called its warrants on July 21, exercises added 11.45M new shares by August 20. That took $BRUN’s float from ~17.5M shares to all 54.3M Class A shares, ~3.1x as many, between July 10 and August 20, while the stock fell from $28.44 to $19.40. So I’d blame the drop from $39.20 on two causes that have nothing to do with $BRUN’s core operations: (1) higher rates and borrowing costs, and (2) $BRUN’s float growing ~3.1x, which was expected once its lockup ended and its warrants were called.
@convequity

Convequity on X

We see $NVDA seeking more power over its HBM suppliers by making Samsung, SK hynix and Micron ($MU) conform to the same base die design for NVHBM, its custom memory. Seoul Economic Daily reports Nvidia asked all three to make the NVHBM base die at TSMC ($TSM), citing consistent performance across suppliers and less validation work per supplier. Samsung reportedly agreed. The base die is the logic beneath the DRAM stack that connects it to the processor, and it is where each memory maker could differentiate with its own logic design. On NVHBM the base die follows Nvidia's standard and carries Nvidia's own memory controller. Our view: this makes the three suppliers' NVHBM stacks much closer to interchangeable. Nvidia can validate each supplier's memory more easily, shift orders between them and push harder on price. The trade-off is more reliance on TSMC. The memory makers are left competing on DRAM core dies, stacking, yield and capacity, which weakens their pricing power with Nvidia on NVHBM. What would change our view: SK hynix or Micron keeping their own logic in the NVHBM base die, or NVHBM staying a small share of Nvidia's memory purchases.

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