October 2026 Random Ramblings
October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.
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From X
Sheel Mohnot on X
Berkshire now has a $1.3B position in Bending Spoons. Stock is up 38% (to $52) on news that Berkshire bought $330M via private placement at $33/share $BSP https://t.co/oGfvtwcdED
Colin King on X
August write-up on Cal Maine $CALM now available to freebie accounts on VIC... Good overview of the situation... at ~$60-65/sh it looks like an asymmetric bet with a 4-6 quarter time horizon https://t.co/60U009ZX53
Negligible Capital on X
D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria (has a $100 price target and a neutral rating on $CRWV ) says “the equity value is going to be zero” on a podcast released today A bit conflicting there Gil https://t.co/aKJmqVZlZ5
Negligible Capital on X
D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria (has a $100 price target and a neutral rating on $CRWV ) says “the equity value is going to be zero” on a podcast released today A bit conflicting there Gil https://t.co/ZLEqfmpE8i
Ian Bezek on X
Happy 5-year anniversary to those who celebrate. $UPST https://t.co/zK4vPVEjjZ https://t.co/Xog81EWEvl
Deep Sail Capital on X
$CRDO Interesting. Credo might help with memory shortage. https://t.co/ZIzLU7aPKO
SG on X
@valuemaverick1 I have no view whether $33 is a good price for $BSP, but I'm comfortable selling calls in the 70s.
Barbarian Capital on X
@GodelTerminal $PM market share 85% $TPB market share 15% Source: me looking at the box
Investor Letters
All letters- Nixon Capital Third Quarter 2026 BRK.A $1.1TPYPL $48B
- Southeastern Asset Management 3Q26 ACI $6.3BFBIN $4.7B
- Fiduciary Management Q3 2026 CDW $18BJKHY $11B
- Asset Value Investors Ltd September 2026 CHDRF $84BLVMUY $212B
- Latitude Investment Management Q3 2026 ADBE $93BNKE $52B
- Fenimore Asset Management Q3 2026 BN $82BMBGL $5.3B
- FPA Crescent Fund 3Q26 028260 $35BADI $201B
- Mar Vista Investment Partners third quarter 2026 GEV $251BMSFT $4T
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My 2028 numbers
ASML’s €11.7 billion quarter benefited from €3.3 billion in installed-base sales and operating leverage, while the MATCH Act threatens…
Visa: Unpacking The 7 Powers And Forward Valuation Ahead Of Q4 Earnings
Visa’s network economics support long-term compounding, but a 1.7–1.8 forward PEG and risks to high-margin payment revenues limit near-term…
C Jessen 24 clicks
Deep Dive: Applied Materials ($AMAT)
Applied Materials leads wafer-fab deposition and ranks third in etch, positioning it for tougher 3D chip manufacturing as investors weigh a…
First Tracks Biotherapeutics: Teva Validated The Pathway, ANB033 May Own The Receptor
First Tracks Biotherapeutics’ ANB033 posted stronger Phase 1b celiac efficacy than Teva’s IL-15 inhibitor, with $168 million funding…
Equity Eagle 4 clicks
Research Roundup Vol. LVI
Howmet Aerospace is framed as a beneficiary of turbine and aircraft-engine demand, while J.B.
Lennar: The Misstep Is Temporary, the Operating Machine Is Not
Lennar cut build times to 116 days and adopted an asset-light land model, while gross margin fell to 15.8% from 27.5% as land costs rose.
Lennar, Part One: The Story
Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…
Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive
Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.
ASML Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review
ASML reported Q3 sales of €11.7 billion, up 55% year over year, and guided Q4 sales to €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion amid capacity…
Eaton: Strong Backlog And Margin Recovery Support The Buy Case
Eaton’s backlog, data-center, grid and aerospace demand, plus a 450–500 bp H2 2026 Electrical Americas margin recovery, support the growth…
Value Capital Research 3 clicks
Insider activity September 2026
Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…
WDC · long Western Digital CORP
Western Digital, a hard-disk manufacturer, is pitched as a long after significant share-price moves deter investors.
Scarcity is the boogey man for ASML, Applied Materials
ASML’s strong quarterly results failed to prevent a selloff, as AI investors focused on scarcity fears facing chip-equipment makers…
Apple HomeView, The New Apple TV, The App Story
Apple HomeView raises questions about demand for expensive Apple devices built around subpar AI.
Expert Call | Corning
Corning’s NVIDIA-backed 10x fiber expansion, enterprise connector demand and carrier capacity plans frame its optical communications…
Apple and LG, The House For Everyone Else, Agent Standards and Amazon
Apple is leaning on partner integration for the smart home, while Amazon faces strategic choices around AI agents.
Nvidia’s Investor Meeting
Nvidia’s investor meeting features CFO Colette Kress and IR and Strategic Finance VP Toshiya Hari.
OCP Day One: AMD CEO Sees Strong Demand for AI Inference and CPUs
AMD CEO Lisa Su says demand for AI inference and CPUs continues to rise as computing capacity becomes more valuable.
Rollins (ROL), Verisure (VSURE), and the cost of standing still (Part 2, Verisure)
Verisure’s 6.38 million monitored-alarm subscribers generate 90% recurring revenue, while its disclosed acquisition costs and 6%-8% churn…
CarGurus ($CARG): The Auto Trader of America, Priced Like a Used Car
CarGurus, the largest U.S. auto-shopping marketplace, trades near $29 despite roughly $1 billion in expected revenue, $300 million in free…
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