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Thursday, October 15, 2026· 7173 stock ideas· 217 writers·
15,900 views· 7,446 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

$AVGO's Hock Tan is right that capital is now the constraint on AI, and that is healthy. The $60bn banks are placing for Anthropic's lease of $GOOGL's TPUs shows how it gets eased: by moving risk, not reducing it. We read his two remarks as cause and effect: tokens are not yet earning a return, so capital is expensive. That brake stops a buildout outrunning its returns. The $42bn senior slice leans on Broadcom's A-minus credit through a partial guarantee of the chips' residual value. The rest is expected to wait for Anthropic's IPO. The brake works where Broadcom's credit stops. On the guaranteed slice the risk has moved, not shrunk: out of a loan spread lenders would price, into a chip deal the seller priced, onto a balance sheet already long the same cycle, where it is too small to move the shares. Google sits on the same outcome three times: Anthropic shareholder, TPU lessor, Broadcom's customer for those chips. The IPO junior lenders are waiting for also puts a public price on Google's stake, and Broadcom's guarantee is safest if it goes well. Spreading risk only reduces it when the holders are diversified against it. None here are. Each piece is ordinary. The total is capital arriving ahead of proven returns, and two of the market's largest companies carrying more of one lab's downside than their labels suggest.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Interesting to see $V up 9 days in a row (nearly funtrun the Chinese announcement). While a positive, it will be years before it plays out (if China follows through down the line, and gets them in the same place AXP and MA already were + the domestic competition). But thats incremental and down the road at best the focus though should be the support the administration (trump recently, and JD wrote the bill when in congress) has thrown behind the CCCA as well as additional bipartisan sponsors that signed on in the past few weeks....that bill will open the rails to an additional network. Which would be a very big additional push towards stable coin based transactions (even greater push from agents commerce). Ultimately the power is shifting towards merchants that no longer want to be subjected to 3%+ interchange fees. If $V losses the CCCA and pandoras box on competition is opened their entire moat is at stake, similar to what is going on with $FICO and Vantage. A once unassailable business model could very quickly come under pressure. Australia lowered interchange fees, went in to effect Oct. 1.....the pressure is building worldwide. But it's the cracking the door open in addition to a new way of shopping that could really leave $V disrupted. Not a mistake the first move earlier this year was lower on the back of AI fears, it has bounced with software now where somehow Phone systems from $RNG and website domains from $GDDY are somehow the new "hot trade", but secular trends seem obvious regardless of pacing that Visa and its pricing power and duopoly are in trouble and FICO to me is a similar case study.

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