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Sunday, October 18, 2026· 5397 stock ideas· 217 writers·
17,725 views· 8,297 clicks

Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $16B
CV's Substack 1 click

From X

@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

Just surfacing this one to demonstrate we are not and never were $snap absolutists. We will go long and short and when facts and circumstances change our opinion changes too. And NO - Specs will not be a mass market hit this holiday season. Too expensive and awk form. But here's the bull case from here: 1. FCF/Share is the metric mgmt now focused on. By definition that requires fresh cost and SBC discipline. 16% hc reduction and flat share count already in place. $500mn in opex savings about to flow through. 2. Ads biz stable enough. 9% growth in Q2. Guide implies so decel. But ad checks stable vs Q2. Decent enough. Some progress on ad tech. Only needs 5% growth next year to hit our numbs. 3. Sub biz $1.2B rr, growing 85%. Needs 50% growth next year to hit numbs. 25mn paid subs, still well below penetration threshold of 7-12%. 4. Specs tech is real. 7k+ patents. Real use cases. What's that worth? $META or $MSFT or $AMZN could buy Specs for the patents alone and pay $2B and it would be nothing to them but all the call optionality which could incubate until form factor is mass market. 5. Lets just say Specs is worth $2B to a strategic buyer or partner. That implies $snap 7.5B or $4.5/ share. In this scenario then FCF/share at SNAP goes to over $1/share, easily. So 4.5x FCF on a business still growing revenue mid teens. @evanspiegel Specs are cool. But can't keep spending $500mn a year on them. Bring in a minority investor please and lets make SNAP stock great again. @IrenicCap
@majgeoinvesting

Maj Soueidan on X

I can see that being true. But when you’re playing in the smaller cap universe, the information disconnect edge is crazy huge. Because less investors are looking at these stocks, no one‘s really finding the information. But yes, when people discover the info, the interpretation phase kicks in. With big caps it’s more about the interpretation phase because everyone is looking at the same information. With microcaps, you have two MultiBagger forces happening: Early information discovery + interpretation. By the way, let’s not forget that there’s so much information out there to interpret, that it creates “brain” overload. It’s going to be interesting to see how AI plays a part in solving some of that problem. 👊But generally, I do like your interpretation angle. It’s funny because when you find information arbitrage in microcaps… that’s so obvious… sometimes you have no movement in the stock because people are either interpreting it wrongly or just don’t believe it, etc. By the way, $HPE would be another good Bigcap Case Study you could use to support your interpretation argument. It just sat there at 15 bucks, as people debated their relevance in AI… And then overnight it goes to $50. I rarely buy big caps, but I got lucky and actually bought some call options ahead of the move.

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