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Thursday, October 15, 2026· 3770 stock ideas· 217 writers·
14,988 views· 7,128 clicks

October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SBUX $103BCMG $38B
Yet Another Value Podcast 65 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

$TSEM remains one of our highest-conviction holdings, even after we trimmed the position in our 4Q26 rebalance. We wanted to keep Tower at its 6.1% portfolio weight despite a roughly 25% fall in its share price over the past quarter. To make room for new holdings, we trimmed the weight to 4.75% and banked some profits. With SpaceX ($SPCX) also becoming a larger holding, we are limiting further additions to avoid concentrating the portfolio in a few companies. Our confidence in Tower's technology remains strong. We think Tower's competitive advantage comes from combining chips that send and receive data using light with the electronic chips that drive and control them. Next-generation optical connections require these components to exchange more data within a smaller space. Hybrid bonding achieves this by joining the chips through densely packed electrical connections that move large amounts of data in a compact package. In our view, Tower's capabilities here are effectively unmatched among Western suppliers. Tower has also added manufacturing capacity more successfully than we expected. It can fulfill more customer orders itself, leaving less business for $GFS. Customers have less reason to switch to a supplier whose technology they consider weaker when Tower can meet their needs, so the capacity expansion strengthens our Tower thesis and weakens the case for competitors that rely on orders Tower cannot accommodate.
@convequity

Convequity on X

We think memory consumption can keep growing while memory prices fall. Memory prices depend on how quickly supply grows, not only on how much demand grows. Existing suppliers and Chinese manufacturers are expanding production. If new production and sales of distributor stock outpace demand, consumption can rise while prices decline. Chinese manufacturers reportedly hold enough lithography machines for three to four years of expansion. That stockpile could allow them to keep adding production capacity even if sanctions block further deliveries of the affected machines. Reports of large distributor inventories and falling spot prices for DDR memory point to a further source of supply. We have not verified the inventory estimates. If distributors start selling down the stock they accumulated in anticipation of shortages, that adds to supply and puts further pressure on prices. We hold SanDisk ($SNDK) for storage and high-bandwidth flash (HBF). HBF could let flash deliver data fast enough for more demanding computing tasks. That gives us a way to benefit from growing data demand without relying entirely on high memory prices.
@aleabitoreddit 2 clicks

Serenity on X

Wow, Largan Chairman dropped a nuke and stated MicroLEDs unlikely to become viable for AI DC buildouts As for what's up and coming... Feels like $AMD, $NVDA, and everyone in the industry is clearly going out of their way to procure CW laser supply this year. EML was the market's focus last year with $LITE / $COHR (and still partially is). But future architectures with microleds was something to keep watch for 2028 onwards... Since $CRDO was pretty focused on it with their acqusition of Hyperlume, $AMS Osram was a popular name (working with Credo too), hyperscalers like $MSFT were developing in the space too. Largan is also a $TSM COUPE supply chain player that does FAU like Foci/microlens/passive components, so they're more impartial. But yeah... was a surprise to see Largan Chairman citing concerns over "power consumption, size, and transmission efficiency" for microled commercialization and said it's unlikely to become viable. (source: Digitimes) TLDR: -> MicroLED as a technology unlikely to become viable from Largan Chairman -> If it turns out correct, indirectly positive for lasers like VCSEL, then CW/SiPH since there's some overlap for CPO scale up applications

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