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WD #360: New Trade, Recent Market Action, Brazil/Inter Update

Atlassian is sold after a 130% gain, while iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF is added following the market plunge; the update also assesses the AI-stock selloff and CoreWeave’s collapse.

TEAM $52B

Ian’s Insider Corner 6h ago 6 clicks

10h ago NOC $68B

Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Preview - Accumulate Rating, Zones And Stop Inside

Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

12h ago APP $88B

AppLovin Deep Dive

Speedwell Memos 13 clicks

From X

@kab604 Sep 18 1 click

kab60 on X

$CCOI DAVE HAS SOMETHING TO SELL https://t.co/Spe7p6acF3

@kab604 Sep 18

kab60 on X

$AN CFO and head of IR really spooked the mkt yesterday... What a shitty appearance🤓

@AsifSuria Sep 18

Asif Suria on X

Fascinating story! Looking forward to listening to the full interview. Wrote this about @mickymalka's insider purchase of $HOOD a few months ago in an Insider Weekends article: https://t.co/5ZWqOfcEuz https://t.co/KU6VxQ7bPO

@Fierce__beast Sep 18

Fierce_beast on X

@nicholaus20006 these resturant ipo's often feels like the last hurrah, especially if it's a mature-ish brand. the rare $CMG or $WING that has lots of room to grow is another thing, i don't think this concept applies to $jmke though.

@Fierce__beast Sep 18

Fierce_beast on X

Comedian talking sense about $JMKE. Just like how Wendy's went to shredded lettuce instead of Iceburg, $JMKE sandwich quality started deteriorating 2 years ago according to this guy. Not counting them out, but not looking great. I made this mistake of buying $JOAN after it IPO'd. Amazing growth, amazing margins, 12x P/E! Of course it was being undermaintained and quality quickly deteriorated post-covid. Beware of private equity and short-term oriented management teams.

@Fierce__beast Sep 18

Fierce_beast on X

In the $INMD example i posted recently, it has a P/E of 8x or so, and sure it's earnings seem to be collapsing, but what if it stabalizes and then recovers after a few years? In this shape, 8x is not quite the bargain you thought it was. https://t.co/FaIWBcgOsR

@Fierce__beast Sep 18

Fierce_beast on X

$INMD has 8.5/sh of cash, a 14.5/sh stock price, and around my estimate of .7/sh of eps after accounting for capital requirements and excluding interest income. If this is right, that means it's trading around 8x p/e (6/.7) for just the operating business. Even if you thought it should only be 4x p/e (3/.7), that's 3$ of downside (20%) on a 14.5/sh stock. Vice versa, if you thought it should be 12x p/e (8.4/.7), that's 2.4$ of upside (16%) on a 14.5/sh stock. Suppose a rational stock market investor requires a 9% return, and if he valued a stock at 8x p/e, that multiple would be consistent with a perpetual earnings decline around 3% annually. For a 4x p/e that rate would be closer to 13%. Should we value INMD's future cash stream at an 8x NTM P/E, above, or below? INMD's earnings seems to be declining much faster than 3% annually, even faster than 11% annually. There seems to be a lot of competition, a lot of issues with their strategy, constnat negative revisions, constant missed promises and dissapointments. Wonder what's going on underneath

@red_dog_capital Sep 17

Red Dog Capital on X

@breadcrumbsre $FERG is already what $QXO wants to be! $QXO…raise tons of equity at inflated values (while Brad buys stock for peanuts). Buy companies in auctions at high prices. Pitch magical synergies to double EBITDA to raise more equity at high valuation….profit?

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LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

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The Undercovered Dozen 29h ago 11 clicks

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The Technology Letter 30h ago 1 click

SKIN · long

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