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Thursday, October 15, 2026· 9721 stock ideas· 217 writers·
16,019 views· 7,473 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens auction take rates.

APP $88B
Speedwell Research 3 clicks

From X

@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Adjusted EBITDA should be lower than Q2 and last year's Q3 (this year's Q2 was actually higher than last year's Q3!). But EPS should definitely be above analyst estimates and could possibly top Q2 EPS. Market doesn't understand how the hedges on the specialty alcohol work. Q2 EPS were penalized simply because the price of ethanol fell a bit during Q2. Well... during Q3, the price of ethanol rocketed higher. Therefore, even though Q2 had a much better average crush margin than Q3, it's possible Q3 could have higher EPS due to how these hedges work. To be clear - on an annual basis - the hedging has no impact. $ALTO is just locking in profit margin. But since it's not hedge accounting... it has an impact on each quarter's earnings. ALTO's business is operating very well. They're posting quarter after quarter of profitable earnings. Q4 should be solid as well and crush margins are strengthening again. Once California E15 kicks in (1/1/2027) then margins will strengthen further. Additionally: It sounds like passage of farm bill that includes E15 is very likely by end of this year. Check out this Politico article highlighting how the GOP is likely to pass a ton of stuff before the end of the year: https://t.co/3VL4DjDnzy "Such a bill, he added, would be “giant” and would include “all the Republican priorities that we can get done.” The House approved a framework for a party-line bill over the summer that includes war funding, farm aid and election integrity incentives. But the push has so far run aground in the Senate Moreno said the threat of imminent Democratic control of either the House or Senate would jump-start matters — and potentially push Republicans to include a debt-ceiling increase as well." "Moreno said if Democrats win control of both chambers, Republicans should stay in session nonstop to pass GOP legislation — which could be a tall order given worries about poor post-election attendance. “If we lose the House and the Senate, we should be here from Nov. 9 until Dec. 31 with no break at all,” Moreno said. “Like, we’ll have turkeys here for Thanksgiving because we have to get this done.”"

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Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $21B
TSOH Investment Research 15 clicks

TSMC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

TSMC reported excellent Q3 results, guided Q4 revenue growth higher and saw its shares slip despite strong AI-driven earnings momentum.

TSM $2.3T
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

My 2028 numbers

ASML’s €11.7 billion quarter benefited from €3.3 billion in installed-base sales and operating leverage, while the MATCH Act threatens…

ASML $660B
Best Anchor Stocks 22 clicks

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 10 clicks

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