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Sunday, November 15, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Six stocks I’m still following filed Q3 numbers: → $QXO: Operating cash flow was only ~$1M in Q3, down from $213M a year ago. → Boost Run $BRUN: Says it has secured $600M of non-dilutive project financing, but a Georgia delay leaves year-end ARR near my bear case. → Reviva $RVPH: Valued at 26.5% of its cash, but needs $50-55M for its second Phase 3 trial and FDA filing. → DigiPowerX $DGXX: ~$30M short of its ~$350M 2027 capex plan, even counting the $200M loan it hasn’t closed yet. → Agility Robotics $AGLT: Down 36.1% from its first-day close, with a little over two years of cash. → FORT Robotics’ SPAC $NTWO: 82% redeemed, and its price implies 36.7x FORT’s TTM revenue. So did the quarter change my call on any of the six? That’s what I answer in my new Q3 update, including whether I’m buying, selling, or holding each name.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The cash flow statement adds share-based compensation back to operating cash flow, since it's a non-cash expense: the company paid its employees in shares, not cash. Over the 12 months through October 2022, Intuit $INTU had $3.81 billion of free cash flow, a 3.5% yield on its $109 billion market value. Move its $1.45 billion of share-based compensation to financing activities, and the yield falls to 2.2%. That's roughly $2.20 of free cash flow per year for every $100 of Intuit stock, not $3.50.

Investor Letters

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Q3 Earnings Updates

Q3 updates cover Crocs, Entravision and Fiserv beats, coal and oil weakness, and Xerox’s sharp decline, testing the underlying cases for…

CROX $7.5BEVC $874M
Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter 3 clicks

The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

AIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks
BV · long

BrightView Holdings

BrightView Holdings' 2.5-year turnaround has returned organic growth, with 30-50% stock upside tied to market confidence in the inflection.

BV $898M
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Dollar Tree: Weathering The Storm

Dollar Tree’s $1.25 opening price and multi-price assortment supported 10% two-year comparable-sales growth, outpacing Walmart U.S.

DLTR $26B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

Vistra Deep Dive

Vistra's contracted nuclear fleet benefits from data centers' high, steady load factors, while Amazon and Meta contracts contribute roughly…

VST $45B
CV's Substack

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