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Sunday, November 15, 2026

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@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Is Freedom the one subsidizing itself and financial ecosystem through that whole share issuance mechanism nuance? Given that can’t they not really afford to burn money on an uncertain payback in marketplace? This could be the “dagger” toppling them and their pyramaid scheme esque structure which would benefit $KSPI. This is disconfirming evidence so in the spirit of Darwin I will be monitoring this to see how it plays out. I will try and gather the specifics on what I’m alluding to and come back to this
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Passed on: - $TK: screens at net cash ≈ market cap, but that cash is TNK's. Parent cash plus its TNK stake is ~$1.01B vs a ~$1.23B market cap. Buy TNK directly. - $DFIN: ran to $68, and the SEC's semiannual-reporting proposal hits filing volume. - $RICK: NY AG indictment, CEO and CFO out. - $BAER: ~$15M of equity under ~$650M of debt and preferred. - $CMRE / $DAC: big backlogs, but contracted net earnings don't cover EV yet. - $MATW, $ACTG, $ARKR, $CVEO: FCF or leverage. - $GRND: not cheap.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$NMM ~$89.03 Navios Partners: containerships, drybulk and tankers, mostly on charter. ~$2.58B mkt cap at ~0.7x book, ~4x annualized earnings. Contracted revenue jumped from $4.4B to $5.0B in one quarter after $735M of new charters, and it runs through 2037. That's ~1.9x the market cap. It's shrinking the unit count. Units are down 2% in a year on a new $200M buyback ($12M used in Q3), and net debt fell $55M to ~$1.74B. The discount is about governance. The payout is $0.06/qtr, Frangou controls it, and $703M of newbuilds was just ordered. But mgmt said it will "recalibrate" return of capital in Q1, the first sign that could change. No AlphaSense expert or broker coverage in 3 months. Nobody's looking.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$TNK ~$89.43 Teekay Tankers runs 33 mid-size crude and product tankers, mostly spot. ~$3.10B mkt cap, $1.42B cash, no debt, ~$1.7B EV. First-half EPS was $10.87, already above all of 2025 ($10.10), and Q3 added $5.04. Q4 so far: Suezmax $272K/day and Aframax $208K/day, 30x+ its breakeven. Clarksons has year-end net cash at ~$53/sh. EV is only ~0.4x the value of the ships, so you're getting the fleet at ~40 cents on the dollar plus the cash. The catalyst: the board will consider a special dividend with Q4 results in February instead of May. The $0.25 base hasn't moved since 2023, so the pressure on the payout is all one way. It's also selling old ships at high prices (4 for $211M) and ordering newbuilds for 2030. Why rates could stay up: OECD inventories are at a 20-year low, the U.S. SPR is ~half its pre-2020 level, and the orderbook mostly just replaces old ships. Risks: rates mean-revert and Teekay Corp controls it. BofA raised 2026 EPS by $12 and still rates it Underperform.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$PRDO ~$28.99 Perdoceo runs online for-profit universities: Colorado Tech, American InterContinental, and Univ. of St. Augustine (PT/OT). ~44,400 students. Up ~3x in three years and +201% over five. ~$1.80B mkt cap, $777M of cash (~$12.50/sh, 43% of the price), no debt. FY26 guide is $3.15-3.19 adj. EPS: ~9x, ~5x ex-cash. It's quietly been buying itself back. Shares are down from 70M in 2019 to 62.6M (-11%), and the dividend went from nothing in 2022 to $0.17/qtr. South University (11 campuses, health sciences) is the next leg: $130-150M of cash plus an earnout, closing ~April. It adds a campus-based nursing business to an online model, bought with cash that was sitting idle. AlphaSense: a former admissions advisor says past enrollment was inflated by "ghost students," which a short report has also alleged. A Purdue Global exec says AI search is breaking the paid-lead funnel. Bull: low price points mean the new federal loan caps hit PRDO less than peers. CTU -0.5% is the number to watch.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$ARCO ~$7.21 "We are not technically in the food business. We are in the real estate business." — Harry Sonneborn, McDonald's first CFO Arcos Dorados is the world's largest independent McDonald's franchisee, with exclusive rights in 20 Latin American and Caribbean markets and 2,582 restaurants. ~$1.5B mkt cap, ~4% dividend yield, consensus EPS $0.80 for 2026 and $0.86 for 2027, so ~8-9x. LTM adj. FCF $156M (~10% of the market cap), net debt 1.3x EBITDA. McDonald's itself trades at 20x+ earnings. Its biggest franchisee, running the same system across a continent, trades at less than half that. Munger once described the ideal small-town portfolio as the best office building, the best apartments, the dominant car dealership and the top McDonald's. Headline earnings look worse than they are. Q3 EPS fell to $0.15 from $0.71 because last year included an $85.6M Brazilian tax credit. Excluding it, EBITDA was up 9%. Digital is where it's winning: 66% of sales, loyalty members +60% to ~38M, and 29% of sales now tied to an identified customer. October Investor Day targets: 550-600 openings in 2027-30, high-single to low-double-digit EBITDA growth, and a $25M buyback started. Bear: margins are off the peak (9.5% vs 12.8%), Brazil comps were only +3.5%, and the +46% in the south is mostly Argentine inflation. $1.3-1.5B of capex eats a lot of the FCF.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$TTWO ~$228 Rockstar (GTA, Red Dead), 2K (NBA 2K, BioShock) and Zynga. GTA VI launches 11/19 after 13 years. It's the last big independent publisher on the public market: Microsoft bought Activision for $68.7B, and EA went private for $55B. Gabelli Funds owns it, and Gabelli's playbook is private market value plus a catalyst: - EA sold for ~7.4x revenue and Activision for ~7.8x. - On Value Line's $10.0B fiscal 2027 revenue (year ending March 2028), that's a $74-78B EV, or ~$390-410 a share. - It trades at ~4.4x the same revenue. The preorder data says people aren't buying the cheap version. Average selling price is ~$97, so most are taking the $99.99 edition over the $79.99 one. ~$1B of preorders already beats GTA V's $800M first day. Guidance looks sandbagged. It implies only ~30M GTA VI units vs a 37M broker forecast, and since 2007 Take-Two has beaten the low end of its bookings guide every year. Zelnick: "uncharted territory, with preorders trending well above our expectations." The long tail is GTA Online. Recurring spending is 81% of bookings, and experts expect battle passes and a creator marketplace this time. The last time a GTA came out, the stock went ~5x over four years. Mgmt expects to be net cash by March. Bear: an expert sees no buyer in the next 5 years (Sony is the only logical one). On Value Line's margins, 2027 EBITDA is only ~$1.8B, so the PMV needs GTA margins to look more like EA's.

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