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Sunday, November 15, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Six stocks I’m still following filed Q3 numbers: → $QXO: Operating cash flow was only ~$1M in Q3, down from $213M a year ago. → Boost Run $BRUN: Says it has secured $600M of non-dilutive project financing, but a Georgia delay leaves year-end ARR near my bear case. → Reviva $RVPH: Valued at 26.5% of its cash, but needs $50-55M for its second Phase 3 trial and FDA filing. → DigiPowerX $DGXX: ~$30M short of its ~$350M 2027 capex plan, even counting the $200M loan it hasn’t closed yet. → Agility Robotics $AGLT: Down 36.1% from its first-day close, with a little over two years of cash. → FORT Robotics’ SPAC $NTWO: 82% redeemed, and its price implies 36.7x FORT’s TTM revenue. So did the quarter change my call on any of the six? That’s what I answer in my new Q3 update, including whether I’m buying, selling, or holding each name.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The cash flow statement adds share-based compensation back to operating cash flow, since it's a non-cash expense: the company paid its employees in shares, not cash. Over the 12 months through October 2022, Intuit $INTU had $3.81 billion of free cash flow, a 3.5% yield on its $109 billion market value. Move its $1.45 billion of share-based compensation to financing activities, and the yield falls to 2.2%. That's roughly $2.20 of free cash flow per year for every $100 of Intuit stock, not $3.50.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Is Freedom the one subsidizing itself and financial ecosystem through that whole share issuance mechanism nuance? Given that can’t they not really afford to burn money on an uncertain payback in marketplace? This could be the “dagger” toppling them and their pyramaid scheme esque structure which would benefit $KSPI. This is disconfirming evidence so in the spirit of Darwin I will be monitoring this to see how it plays out. I will try and gather the specifics on what I’m alluding to and come back to this

Investor Letters

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The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

AIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (11/13/2026)

Tripadvisor’s CEO and CFO will depart after weak Q3 results, while Roblox’s CEO discusses AI and Berkshire repurchases $9.6 billion of…

RBLX $36B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks
OKLO · short

Oklo INC

Oklo is framed as a portfolio basket short and a concept company that could become a compounding short.

OKLO $4.7B
Value Investors Club

The Mispriced Assets Super Bowl

Groupon, Corsair and StepStone report within 15 minutes, setting up volatility between Groupon’s after-hours release and its Friday morning…

STEP $6.2B
Mispriced Assets

Coupang: 2Q26 Business Recap

Coupang’s product-commerce revenue rose 8% in constant currency as data-leak churn lingered, while promotions and underused logistics…

CPNG $27B
Speedwell Memos 8 clicks

Portfolio Update July 2026

Portfolio update trimmed Greggs and Roper Technologies after earnings, with Roper raising guidance and Greggs reporting 7.2% revenue growth…

ROP $48BZTS $34B
D Invests 1 click

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