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Sunday, November 15, 2026

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@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$TTWO ~$228 Rockstar (GTA, Red Dead), 2K (NBA 2K, BioShock) and Zynga. GTA VI launches 11/19 after 13 years. It's the last big independent publisher on the public market: Microsoft bought Activision for $68.7B, and EA went private for $55B. Gabelli Funds owns it, and Gabelli's playbook is private market value plus a catalyst: - EA sold for ~7.4x revenue and Activision for ~7.8x. - On Value Line's $10.0B fiscal 2027 revenue (year ending March 2028), that's a $74-78B EV, or ~$390-410 a share. - It trades at ~4.4x the same revenue. The preorder data says people aren't buying the cheap version. Average selling price is ~$97, so most are taking the $99.99 edition over the $79.99 one. ~$1B of preorders already beats GTA V's $800M first day. Guidance looks sandbagged. It implies only ~30M GTA VI units vs a 37M broker forecast, and since 2007 Take-Two has beaten the low end of its bookings guide every year. Zelnick: "uncharted territory, with preorders trending well above our expectations." The long tail is GTA Online. Recurring spending is 81% of bookings, and experts expect battle passes and a creator marketplace this time. The last time a GTA came out, the stock went ~5x over four years. Mgmt expects to be net cash by March. Bear: an expert sees no buyer in the next 5 years (Sony is the only logical one). On Value Line's margins, 2027 EBITDA is only ~$1.8B, so the PMV needs GTA margins to look more like EA's.
@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

The biggest money in public markets is made when perception diverges dramatically from reality. Think of betting on sports on Kalshi/Polymarket. You’re not making a fortune betting on the #1 team to beat the #2 team. You’re making it betting on the 99-to-1 underdog when you realize the odds are completely wrong… A few situations that come to mind: - PSPs ($CIFR, $WULF, $APLD, $RIOT): Financing fears vs. the value of contracted power and development pipelines. - $TLN: PJM regulatory overhang vs. underlying FCF generation. - $FSLR: Fears of losing 45X credits vs. durable domestic manufacturing economics. What other situations fit this framework?
@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

If you want to see the most notable changes (new, updated, removed) for any S&P 500 company every quarter, this page I built keeps track of that automatically. My SEC reading tool diff's each filing against the previous one, identifies exactly what changed w/in the filing and tables (footnotes included), and then uses the AI I've trained to flag the most notable changes. Those most notable changes are what's shown on this page. Not every single change (most are not worth highlighting; like legal language or something small). Click on any of them and it'll show you that exactly (image shows example for $FDX). Then you can click on any of the changes to jump to the exact location on the filing itself. Or simply open and read the latest 10-Q or 10-K on SECSift for free (no account required). See it here:

Investor Letters

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The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

AIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (11/13/2026)

Tripadvisor’s CEO and CFO will depart after weak Q3 results, while Roblox’s CEO discusses AI and Berkshire repurchases $9.6 billion of…

RBLX $36B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks

QXO Inc Earnings Update: Q3 2026

QXO's Q3 sales rose 79% to $4.9 billion after TopBuild and Kodiak acquisitions, while acquisition debt lifted interest expense to $163…

QXO $13B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 3 clicks
CNH · long

Cnh Industrial NV

CNH Industrial, the No. 2 global agricultural-equipment OEM, is pitched long at about $10 per share.

CNH $19B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Cerebras Systems, Inc.

Cerebras Systems’ WSE-3 wafer-scale chip targets low-latency AI inference with faster decode than GPU racks, while higher per-token costs…

CBRS $26B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets

The AI Compute Squeeze

CoreWeave and Nebius cite AI compute shortages and higher-priced GPU renewals, but older-chip utilization and depreciation vary across…

CRWV $30BNBIS $32B
MBI Deep Dives 9 clicks

Coherent Q4 FY26 Earnings

Coherent’s Q4 FY26 results prompt claims that poor 6-inch InP laser yields are limiting margins versus Lumentum in co-packaged optics.

COHR $42BLITE $54B
Irrational Analysis 1 click

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