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Saturday, November 14, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

TOYO Co., Ltd $TOYO went from a $123.9M working capital deficit and a going-concern warning to $29.8M of positive working capital in six months. Here’s the balance sheet: → Cash: $103.5M as of June 30, plus $20.0M of restricted cash, up from $51.6M as of December 31, helped by $52.6M of net proceeds from the June offering and its at-the-market (ATM) program. → Debt: $25.7M of short-term bank loans and $51.4M owed on the VSUN loan, including interest, which VSUN (the Vietnamese panel maker $TOYO was carved out of) extended to June 17, 2028, plus $37.6M of leases. → Working capital: $29.8M, vs. a $123.9M deficit as of December 31 that had drawn the auditor’s going-concern paragraph. The $52.6M of offering and ATM cash and the VSUN extension, which moved the $51.4M loan out of current liabilities, account for $104.0M of the $153.7M improvement, and $TOYO said substantial doubt no longer exists. → Customer prepayments: $114.0M of contract liabilities (products customers have paid for but $TOYO hasn’t delivered), including $64.7M from related parties. Before June 30, current liabilities had exceeded current assets at every balance sheet date since December 2023. The June offering (4,545,456 shares at $11.00) and the ATM (414,495 shares at an average $13.78) also raised $TOYO’s share count 13.1% to 42.7M as of June 30, from 37.8M as of March 31. So the balance sheet is no longer the risk it was in March, but part of the cash is customers’ prepayments, and the $51.4M VSUN loan comes due in June 2028.
@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

While rummaging through insider purchases last night, I came across a company that I almost discarded at first look. It scored poorly in our quantitive model (IA Score of 36), free cash flow was just a smidgen positive in 2025, debt on the balance sheet was growing and it remains unprofitable. Yet an independent director with deep industry experience was buying. This is his fourth insider purchase since joining the board in 2023 and he picked up $408,600 worth of stock according to the Form 4 filed yesterday. The company is California-based Alphatec Holdings $ATEC and they make a robotics platform focused on spinal surgery. The stock is down an astounding 62% over the last year. Dave Demski, the independent director that bought shares, used to previously be the COO and then the CEO of Globus Medical $GMED Globus Medical built a robotics platform to help with spinal surgery, hip reconstruction and more. During Demski's nearly 5 years as CEO of Globus Medical from 2017 to 2022, revenue increased from about $700 million to over $1 billion and the stock more than doubled despite the disruption due to COVID-19. So what made me take a closer look at Alphatec? I love companies that could be at a point of inflection and I'll let the income statement speak for itself. Last quarter the company almost broke even and free cash flow was positive. Year-over-year revenue growth was about 13% but it missed consensus estimates. For the full year they expected adjusted EBITDA of $137 million and free cash flow of $10 million. With an enterprise value of just $1.65 billion, I can see this company being an acquisition target for Medtronic $MDT, Zimmer, Boston Scientific or more importantly Globus Medical.
@convequity

Convequity on X

Compute & Accelerators screen (43 names). Our Rule of X = forward growth x a sector coefficient + free cash flow margin - SBC %. The coefficient starts from Bessemer’s 2.3 for software and is scaled by how much profit a sector earns per $ of growth versus its cost of capital. More profit and cheaper capital means growth counts for more. Compute mostly runs 2.3 to 2.7. Colours: green = high score, cheap, or price down (more upside from here). High score + attractive valuation + flat or falling price: $NVDA (DCF 91% discount), $AVGO (94%), $ASML (EV/FCF 24.8x). High score but priced for it: $AEHR (EV/GP 95x), $AMD (EV/FCF 125x). Data from Koyfin, prices at 30 Oct close. A screen, not advice. Do your own research.

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