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Saturday, November 14, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

I checked Root’s $ROOT Q3 against the base and bear cases from my August update, after the car insurer fell 24.1% in two days. $ROOT bought back 290,694 shares in Q3 at an average of $53.15/share ($15.5M), leaving $38.8M on the authorization, ~6% of today’s market cap. At $43.37/share, the market cap is $659M on 15.2M shares, or 2.0x the $327.0M book value as of September 30. Net of the $261.6M held outside the insurance subsidiaries, you’re paying $397M for the insurance operations, or 3.9x nine-month net income annualized (Q4 is the seasonally weak quarter). In August, my base case was $55-80/share (2.5-3.5x book on an 18-22% ROE), and my bear case $35-45 (1.5-2.0x book, with ROE compressing to 12-15%). Q3’s annualized ROE was ~18%, the bottom of the base case, while the stock now trades at the top of the bear case’s multiple.
@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

Fascinating - $GOOG TPU has the best architecture for AI compute, and “there aren’t enough TPUs,” $AVGO $ANT “Today I would argue that probably the best architecture is the Google TPU architecture, because it is literally thought of as a single system. And I think an NVIDIA-style architecture is migrating in the direction of where the TPU architecture is, but it still has a few pieces that you can kind of swap out. And then you have everybody else — like, you know, I'm going to take a Cerebras chip and throw an Arista switch on top of it, and all that good stuff. At least in today's world, those systems have inefficiencies because they're not constructed as a system — they're more of a patchwork. I think the industry will evolve, but today, people that can think of the whole thing as a single system and optimize the architecture through that have a competitive advantage. If you look at how Google does this, with these toroidal pass-through optical MEMS switches — it's literally like the whole data center is the minimum unit. But my sense is that's where NVIDIA wants to go also. Actually, the two dominant providers are all going to that systems approach, versus — I mean, even the smaller startups are heading that direction. Right now Jensen's king of the hill, incredibly dominant, right? Google TPU very successful, currently mostly sold by Google — it's expected to change. But not enough TPUs.”

Investor Letters

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Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $35B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks

Nvidia’s Future | My Question Marks

Nvidia’s future is framed around alleged China GPU diversion, tighter export controls and supply-chain risk after Jensen Huang’s claimed…

NVDA $4T
P Equity Research 4 clicks

Qualcomm Custom ASICs?

Qualcomm’s Alphawave SerDes, CPU cores and HBC could support custom AI ASICs as hyperscalers build heterogeneous fleets beyond GPUs.

QCOM $190B
Chipstrat 4 clicks

QXO Inc Earnings Update: Q3 2026

QXO's Q3 sales rose 79% to $4.9 billion after TopBuild and Kodiak acquisitions, while acquisition debt lifted interest expense to $163…

QXO $13B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 3 clicks

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